***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 16.10.2017.-22.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 6.6 5.7 8.3 -0.5 45.5 47.7 5.1 6.1 7.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 6.5 5.7 7.9 -0.5 45.4 46.3 5.1 6.0 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 8.6 7.9 8.3 -0.4 45.6 47.5 7.4 8.1 9.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.0 5.7 -0.3 46.0 48.0 2.7 3.5 4.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 5.8 5.0 6.0 -0.4 43.9 47.1 4.2 5.4 6.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 4.9 3.8 4.4 -0.1 47.0 48.8 3.5 4.2 5.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 6.5 5.8 7.9 -0.5 45.8 46.1 4.5 6.1 7.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 1.5 0.5 4.3 -0.3 43.0 47.2 -0.1 1.0 2.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.7 5.9 6.3 -0.4 43.0 47.4 5.3 6.2 7.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.6 6.1 5.0 -0.3 42.1 46.8 4.4 6.2 7.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 4.4 5.2 5.4 -0.3 42.8 46.8 3.9 5.8 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.1 4.2 4.9 -0.2 44.7 47.8 3.3 4.9 6.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 5.8 5.0 4.6 -0.3 44.8 47.3 3.3 5.1 5.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 7.0 6.4 6.1 -0.4 43.5 46.3 5.3 6.7 7.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.0 7.0 0.0 48.9 51.4 4.6 6.0 7.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 5.3 6.3 5.1 -0.3 43.8 47.6 5.3 6.7 7.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.4 5.5 7.7 -0.4 45.6 46.4 5.1 6.0 7.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 3.6 4.9 4.2 -0.4 42.3 46.4 3.7 5.3 6.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 6.7 5.6 7.9 -0.4 45.1 46.4 5.0 6.4 7.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.6 1.0 2.7 -0.4 41.2 46.1 0.1 2.1 3.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 6.5 5.7 7.5 -0.4 43.1 47.2 4.9 6.1 7.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 5.8 5.2 7.6 -0.4 44.0 46.0 4.2 5.4 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 6.8 6.1 7.8 -0.4 45.6 46.7 4.6 6.4 6.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.5 5.9 -0.4 42.7 46.5 4.8 5.9 6.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.5 7.0 -0.5 44.5 47.0 5.4 6.6 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 5.8 4.8 4.4 -0.4 41.8 45.9 4.2 5.2 6.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 7.1 6.2 7.7 -0.5 45.2 47.4 4.9 6.6 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.3 4.8 6.0 -0.1 47.9 50.0 2.9 4.9 5.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 2.9 4.0 3.8 -0.4 41.6 46.0 3.4 4.4 5.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.0 6.4 8.0 -0.5 45.9 46.7 5.7 6.6 7.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------