***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 09.10.2017.-15.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 6.6 6.9 9.2 -0.9 35.1 38.1 6.9 7.6 8.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 58 42 0 100 6.1 7.0 8.8 -0.9 37.3 37.7 6.8 7.4 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 8.8 9.2 9.4 -0.8 36.5 39.0 9.0 9.8 10.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 3.8 4.5 6.7 -0.6 38.8 40.3 4.1 5.3 5.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 5.6 5.6 7.4 -0.8 35.9 38.7 5.6 6.4 7.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 66 34 0 100 4.7 5.2 5.1 -0.8 35.0 38.2 5.2 6.0 6.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 6.6 7.2 9.0 -0.9 37.9 38.5 6.8 7.9 8.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 0.8 1.2 5.2 -0.9 34.2 38.9 1.2 1.9 3.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 6.8 7.3 7.6 -0.8 36.2 38.9 7.1 7.7 8.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 59 41 0 100 6.5 6.8 6.1 -0.8 35.0 39.1 6.8 7.5 7.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 62 38 0 100 6.0 6.3 6.9 -0.7 36.4 39.9 6.2 6.9 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 58 42 0 100 5.3 5.5 6.0 -0.8 35.8 39.7 5.4 5.8 6.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 5.4 5.8 5.8 -1.0 34.6 37.5 5.8 6.5 7.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 8.4 7.4 7.4 -0.7 37.5 40.3 7.3 8.0 8.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 7.2 7.9 8.3 -0.4 42.3 42.8 7.3 8.0 8.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 6.9 7.3 6.4 -0.8 36.6 39.3 7.3 7.7 8.6 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 6.8 7.0 8.6 -0.8 38.1 38.4 7.0 7.6 8.8 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 5.6 6.3 5.4 -0.8 36.4 39.2 5.9 6.6 7.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 6.5 6.9 8.9 -0.8 37.3 38.6 6.8 7.6 8.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 61 39 0 100 1.8 1.9 3.7 -1.1 32.6 36.9 1.9 2.8 4.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 6.0 6.1 8.6 -0.8 35.9 38.4 6.0 6.8 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 6.1 6.0 8.7 -0.8 37.4 38.8 5.8 6.8 8.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 6.4 6.9 8.9 -0.7 37.9 40.2 6.7 7.3 8.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 7.6 7.0 7.3 -0.6 38.6 40.8 6.3 7.4 7.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 6.5 6.5 8.3 -1.0 33.2 36.8 6.5 7.3 8.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 66 34 0 100 5.6 6.3 5.4 -1.1 33.3 37.0 6.3 6.6 7.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 6.0 6.5 8.8 -1.0 34.8 37.7 6.5 6.9 9.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 5.3 5.9 7.1 -0.5 40.9 42.1 5.1 6.1 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 4.8 4.7 4.8 -0.9 34.2 38.5 4.6 5.8 6.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 6.6 7.1 9.1 -0.9 36.4 37.9 6.9 7.6 8.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------