***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 28.09.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 02.10.2017.-08.10.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 78 22 0 100 7.8 7.4 9.7 -1.6 24.3 27.1 7.7 9.7 10.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 77 23 0 100 7.8 7.7 9.5 -1.5 22.4 26.5 8.7 9.6 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 79 21 0 100 10.0 9.8 9.9 -1.6 23.2 26.1 10.6 11.7 12.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 79 21 0 100 5.0 4.7 6.7 -2.1 20.1 21.9 6.1 6.7 7.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 82 18 0 100 5.9 6.5 8.0 -1.6 21.5 24.9 7.7 9.2 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 84 16 0 100 5.2 5.0 5.0 -1.9 20.1 21.4 6.6 8.4 9.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 77 23 0 100 8.0 8.0 9.5 -1.6 23.2 26.1 8.3 9.4 10.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 87 13 0 100 2.2 2.0 5.5 -1.7 20.4 22.6 2.6 3.9 4.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 85 15 0 100 7.9 7.7 8.1 -1.4 23.2 25.1 8.6 10.0 11.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 86 14 0 100 7.1 7.5 6.4 -1.7 20.7 22.7 8.0 9.2 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 84 16 0 100 6.4 6.6 7.5 -1.6 22.1 23.8 7.6 9.3 9.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 85 15 0 100 5.0 4.9 6.4 -1.7 21.3 23.9 6.6 8.1 8.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 5.5 5.5 6.4 -1.8 21.1 22.5 7.1 8.6 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 79 21 0 100 7.7 7.8 7.9 -1.5 21.2 24.3 8.9 9.8 10.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 89 11 0 100 7.3 7.8 8.4 -1.9 20.1 21.2 8.8 10.3 10.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 7.0 7.9 6.8 -1.8 21.9 23.4 8.1 9.8 11.0 30 Nis 06700G01 78 22 0 100 8.2 8.2 9.2 -1.5 22.3 26.4 8.6 9.6 10.3 30 Palic 37000G16 84 16 0 100 5.6 5.7 5.9 -1.6 20.9 23.5 7.0 8.5 9.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 77 23 0 100 7.9 7.8 9.6 -1.4 23.2 26.9 8.7 9.4 10.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 82 18 0 100 2.1 2.0 4.3 -1.7 19.6 23.5 2.7 5.0 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 87 13 0 100 6.9 7.1 9.0 -1.6 21.3 23.5 8.2 9.5 10.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 75 25 0 100 7.1 7.3 9.4 -1.5 23.2 25.9 7.7 8.5 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 79 21 0 100 7.6 7.9 9.6 -1.4 25.3 27.4 8.2 9.1 10.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 87 13 0 100 6.6 6.7 7.9 -1.5 22.1 24.4 8.3 8.9 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 81 19 0 100 7.2 7.9 8.9 -1.7 23.0 25.4 9.1 10.0 11.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 89 11 0 100 5.8 5.8 5.9 -1.7 22.4 24.2 7.1 9.2 9.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 78 22 0 100 8.3 8.1 9.2 -1.7 23.5 26.1 9.0 10.4 11.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 4.6 5.1 7.1 -2.0 20.4 21.8 7.5 8.9 9.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 84 16 0 100 5.9 5.8 5.1 -1.6 20.3 23.0 6.4 7.4 8.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 78 22 0 100 8.1 8.4 9.7 -1.5 24.2 27.0 8.9 9.6 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------