***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 19.6 23.8 42.9 82.8 44.7 41.5 13.3 33.1 49.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 20.5 26.9 39.7 83.4 44.5 41.8 14.4 34.9 53.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 47.6 27.4 42.1 82.9 45.5 41.6 18.3 35.6 58.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 35.4 55.6 49.2 84.3 48.2 42.0 29.0 56.1 78.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 47.4 37.6 44.7 83.7 47.1 42.0 28.7 38.3 51.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 55 45 0 100 23.2 41.9 50.4 94.5 53.8 45.9 27.5 38.9 51.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 16.3 24.9 39.8 83.9 45.3 41.9 17.1 26.7 45.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 59.1 48.4 50.2 89.4 49.1 45.1 42.1 49.8 70.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 44.4 33.9 44.5 82.4 47.4 41.8 23.6 35.7 51.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 49.7 37.3 48.6 85.0 46.8 43.1 32.6 40.2 60.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 42.2 35.1 44.2 84.6 47.5 42.6 28.6 36.7 53.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 42.5 38.4 45.5 91.0 50.1 45.4 25.9 38.4 51.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 27.1 44.3 49.5 96.4 54.0 46.3 26.4 37.1 54.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 54 46 0 100 39.9 50.9 49.2 80.8 42.1 39.5 39.5 59.8 80.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 18.8 40.8 52.0 92.4 52.5 46.4 20.8 32.5 58.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 38.2 32.6 46.2 90.7 50.8 44.4 21.0 31.3 47.1 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 15.2 22.6 38.8 81.4 41.5 41.3 17.2 29.8 42.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 56.7 47.1 51.6 86.2 45.0 43.3 33.7 48.9 63.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 24.3 30.2 40.1 82.1 43.4 41.0 18.1 39.2 63.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 57.2 47.9 62.8 92.3 49.7 46.3 38.0 48.5 65.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 43.1 31.4 43.3 82.8 46.7 41.7 24.0 33.8 55.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 21.7 28.2 40.6 80.5 40.9 40.7 22.3 32.3 47.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 24.7 32.4 41.3 80.7 42.7 39.7 25.3 40.8 67.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 29.7 29.7 47.3 83.9 44.7 42.0 25.3 41.1 61.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 43.2 31.8 48.9 87.0 48.3 43.0 16.8 31.9 53.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 48.4 42.3 50.9 98.1 53.5 47.7 27.6 40.6 52.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 19.0 25.3 45.3 84.5 45.9 42.1 14.7 29.0 52.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 21.7 39.3 48.2 88.8 50.7 44.5 19.7 38.5 50.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 73.9 59.4 54.9 88.1 46.1 43.8 46.1 64.3 77.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 20.1 27.1 40.7 83.6 45.3 41.8 17.6 31.3 57.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------