***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 1.4 5.6 13.3 101.7 66.2 51.9 1.7 2.9 5.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 1.5 6.7 12.1 100.6 60.5 48.6 1.0 3.3 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 2.5 8.6 13.7 105.2 64.8 51.7 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.2 15.4 15.3 108.1 69.2 51.7 1.4 4.5 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 3.2 12.1 13.6 100.7 67.5 49.4 2.5 5.7 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 1.3 8.7 13.2 103.1 65.5 48.4 0.5 3.2 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 1.8 5.9 11.7 98.1 60.0 48.3 1.7 4.1 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.6 16.9 16.1 113.4 68.3 50.3 2.8 9.0 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 2.8 8.3 13.8 100.5 68.7 48.6 2.1 6.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 3.0 10.9 15.1 105.3 67.8 48.6 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 1.9 9.4 13.4 103.3 67.7 48.9 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 2.0 7.1 14.1 110.3 67.2 50.0 1.1 4.1 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 1.7 8.0 13.5 104.8 64.5 48.5 1.9 4.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 4.2 11.6 15.2 96.8 60.4 48.2 2.8 8.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 2.1 10.5 17.1 120.6 71.9 53.6 1.5 4.0 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 1.4 6.5 13.0 102.7 65.5 48.7 2.1 3.2 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 1.0 4.2 11.0 92.3 59.0 46.7 1.1 2.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 3.2 8.9 15.2 101.5 64.0 47.3 1.4 7.3 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 2.0 7.4 12.7 102.2 61.1 49.1 1.1 4.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 2.3 10.7 20.2 111.5 66.2 50.1 2.0 5.3 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 2.7 10.4 13.3 101.0 67.8 50.9 1.8 5.5 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.3 7.0 11.5 92.3 55.2 46.4 2.6 5.6 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 3.2 10.3 13.6 103.1 62.0 49.2 1.6 6.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 2.9 9.6 14.6 101.7 64.0 48.4 2.4 6.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 1.3 5.8 14.4 103.0 65.4 52.0 0.5 2.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 1.8 10.1 15.2 114.3 67.7 50.1 1.2 4.2 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 1.0 3.5 13.5 99.8 63.9 51.3 1.0 2.3 4.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 1.9 9.3 15.0 112.1 70.4 51.6 2.0 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 4.2 15.5 15.7 100.0 62.6 47.5 2.3 8.3 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 2.0 5.2 12.8 103.8 62.0 50.3 0.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------