***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9.1 9.1 10.4 82.5 55.0 43.7 2.7 6.2 15.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.0 7.0 10.3 88.7 58.3 45.3 0.5 4.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 4.2 12.1 9.8 78.6 54.6 42.4 1.3 8.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 9.9 8.7 12.2 85.1 57.6 47.3 3.2 6.7 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 4.1 10.4 10.9 80.4 55.5 44.8 1.7 8.2 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 1.7 7.7 11.9 85.7 59.2 47.9 1.0 3.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 5.9 6.2 10.5 92.9 58.4 46.2 0.9 3.8 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 5.0 12.4 11.4 80.5 55.5 45.7 5.3 10.2 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.7 8.6 10.7 76.7 54.0 43.2 4.5 7.8 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 5.5 13.8 11.4 78.8 54.9 44.8 2.8 10.9 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 4.9 12.5 10.6 81.3 56.8 44.7 2.0 10.0 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 3.7 8.2 10.5 82.0 57.3 45.0 1.6 7.6 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 10.2 10.2 11.8 88.8 58.5 47.0 1.1 8.0 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 7.4 20.5 11.7 80.7 56.2 44.9 7.8 14.7 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 6.0 4.5 12.6 90.5 59.5 48.5 1.0 3.1 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 8.9 8.9 11.2 87.2 59.2 46.9 1.3 6.6 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 4.9 4.3 10.4 92.0 60.2 46.2 0.6 1.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.4 12.1 81.3 57.1 45.1 3.8 7.9 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 12.4 10.1 9.9 83.7 57.5 44.7 3.3 9.3 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 12.9 12.0 14.5 82.7 55.2 46.1 2.9 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 2.9 7.2 10.2 78.7 55.5 43.7 2.0 6.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.4 8.9 11.0 92.3 59.6 46.5 0.6 5.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 11.0 12.8 9.7 79.0 56.7 44.8 2.4 8.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 6.5 14.8 11.2 80.9 56.9 44.4 3.4 13.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 2.0 10.3 11.7 83.7 55.1 44.0 1.4 4.0 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.5 8.8 11.7 85.4 58.9 46.3 0.5 6.1 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 2.4 7.7 11.1 85.3 56.0 44.0 2.4 5.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 7.0 8.2 11.9 88.2 59.7 48.7 3.0 5.3 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.4 16.9 12.8 83.0 57.0 45.6 6.1 13.4 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 9.4 8.5 10.3 86.9 56.7 44.7 1.2 6.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------