***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 1.3 4.8 10.6 88.7 59.8 48.1 0.4 2.7 5.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 7.8 7.9 10.3 94.0 61.3 51.3 1.7 4.2 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 3.2 9.1 10.4 87.2 57.0 47.7 0.6 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 4.9 15.2 11.6 88.6 60.1 47.4 3.0 9.6 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 1.6 9.9 10.8 87.5 57.8 46.2 1.6 3.8 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 4.0 20.8 14.3 113.0 68.2 52.6 3.9 8.3 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 7.0 11.3 10.5 95.8 62.4 51.4 0.7 2.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 7.0 21.8 13.0 103.9 62.8 50.0 7.6 12.4 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 54 46 0 100 3.6 12.8 11.4 92.3 60.9 48.2 1.4 7.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 4.4 17.5 12.6 98.4 61.7 49.4 2.2 9.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 2.9 8.4 11.2 91.4 56.7 46.6 1.0 6.6 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 2.9 13.9 12.2 105.2 61.6 49.5 1.2 6.5 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 2.9 19.3 13.1 112.7 64.8 50.4 2.5 5.9 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.6 10.1 13.1 90.5 57.5 48.3 1.5 6.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.3 10.3 11.1 88.2 62.1 47.1 0.4 2.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.6 11.5 12.2 104.9 62.0 49.4 1.1 5.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.2 5.7 11.1 98.9 63.4 53.2 0.3 1.1 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 17.0 18.8 13.5 99.5 62.6 50.1 2.8 14.6 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 7.4 5.6 10.2 90.4 59.9 50.2 0.6 2.0 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 59 41 0 100 4.3 13.4 15.7 101.5 61.9 48.5 5.4 9.6 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.6 12.7 11.2 92.3 59.5 48.1 4.0 8.3 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 8.5 9.7 11.4 95.5 62.1 52.8 0.1 4.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.1 4.3 10.3 85.7 56.2 47.9 0.4 2.5 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 11.1 13.2 12.5 94.1 59.3 49.5 1.6 6.6 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 3.6 12.6 12.0 89.8 58.2 46.8 1.7 8.1 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.4 21.4 13.9 111.2 67.4 51.5 5.7 10.0 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 2.1 9.7 11.5 90.6 60.3 47.7 1.4 4.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 1.0 10.9 11.2 92.9 61.9 47.7 1.0 2.3 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 21.1 25.0 14.9 103.2 62.2 50.8 5.0 17.8 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 7.9 6.5 10.0 89.2 59.3 49.6 0.8 3.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------