***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 1.2 2.4 8.5 60.5 48.0 41.4 1.0 2.6 6.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 1.3 1.5 7.0 53.8 46.7 37.6 0.4 3.0 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 2.2 4.7 8.3 61.4 51.8 39.9 2.6 4.4 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 17.0 12.7 10.1 60.5 50.6 42.5 4.6 12.3 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 12.6 9.4 9.4 67.3 51.3 43.6 2.6 9.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 8.1 6.1 10.9 78.4 56.1 44.3 1.2 3.3 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 1.4 1.9 7.1 53.5 47.9 38.2 0.3 3.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.0 14.7 9.7 63.6 48.6 39.2 5.8 14.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 3.2 5.0 8.7 61.8 47.4 39.9 1.6 6.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 5.4 8.0 9.5 61.4 46.5 38.8 2.6 10.7 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.0 12.5 9.0 64.8 52.5 42.5 2.0 11.3 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 2.9 8.5 8.8 68.4 53.9 41.2 1.2 6.5 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 2.6 7.6 11.1 81.9 59.0 45.7 2.1 5.4 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 58 42 0 100 3.2 4.6 9.2 56.7 41.4 36.4 3.1 6.3 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 9.0 11.8 11.2 71.7 57.7 48.1 2.0 6.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 1.3 6.0 9.8 71.1 55.3 43.8 0.6 2.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.6 1.9 6.3 47.9 44.0 35.6 0.3 3.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 6.0 9.6 10.9 65.7 47.6 39.4 3.0 10.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 1.5 2.8 7.3 54.9 46.1 37.5 2.0 3.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.6 13.3 12.3 74.1 53.6 44.3 5.3 13.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 3.8 8.0 8.5 61.2 48.1 40.6 1.9 8.1 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 2.0 3.0 6.8 47.6 43.8 34.5 0.7 4.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.1 7.7 56.4 45.5 37.5 1.5 3.8 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 54 46 0 100 3.9 7.2 8.9 60.1 46.6 38.3 3.7 8.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 7.9 4.3 10.9 72.5 53.9 45.9 1.8 3.7 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 7.0 8.3 10.1 81.6 58.7 46.3 1.2 2.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.1 2.8 9.2 64.1 49.6 42.7 0.9 2.8 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 12.4 13.5 10.1 65.9 54.0 44.8 3.8 10.6 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 6.5 11.5 11.4 68.6 49.3 41.0 6.0 11.6 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 2.0 5.3 7.6 57.2 50.9 39.1 0.9 4.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------