***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 18.3 19.0 18.3 1.2 63.8 60.9 15.1 17.9 19.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 18.4 18.5 18.4 1.4 66.2 61.9 16.6 18.3 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 18.6 19.1 18.7 1.4 63.8 61.8 17.7 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.5 11.5 15.9 1.1 60.7 59.7 9.4 11.1 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 18.7 18.7 16.6 0.9 57.5 57.9 17.1 18.1 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 18.0 18.1 15.1 0.7 56.5 55.9 15.2 17.4 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 80 20 100 17.8 18.3 18.3 1.3 66.2 61.2 16.5 17.6 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 9.6 9.4 15.7 1.1 61.1 58.9 7.3 9.0 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 18.9 18.8 17.2 1.0 56.5 58.3 17.5 18.5 19.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.3 16.4 1.1 59.3 58.8 16.7 17.9 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 18.9 18.7 16.6 1.0 59.5 58.1 16.8 18.3 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 18.5 18.7 16.4 1.0 61.4 58.5 16.3 17.9 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.9 15.8 0.7 58.9 56.2 16.3 18.6 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 19.0 19.1 17.5 1.3 60.6 59.5 18.0 18.7 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 41 59 100 17.8 17.3 16.4 1.2 65.6 61.8 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 19.5 19.7 16.3 0.9 59.7 57.3 17.0 18.9 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 17.7 17.8 17.9 1.1 64.2 59.7 15.4 17.4 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 18.1 18.1 16.3 1.2 60.2 59.2 16.0 17.9 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 41 59 100 18.9 18.6 18.6 1.5 66.5 62.3 16.9 18.0 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 15.1 15.4 14.0 1.1 61.1 58.5 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 18.4 18.8 17.7 1.0 58.7 58.4 17.7 18.0 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 18.6 18.9 17.9 1.1 62.9 59.5 15.7 18.4 18.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 41 59 100 19.0 18.6 18.8 1.5 66.5 62.4 16.6 18.3 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 19.0 19.1 17.5 1.3 61.3 60.1 17.7 18.6 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 17.7 17.6 16.4 0.9 60.6 58.0 16.5 17.3 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 18.2 18.9 16.0 1.1 64.7 59.9 16.3 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 18.3 19.2 17.5 1.1 63.6 59.6 17.2 17.9 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 16.8 18.1 16.2 1.1 60.7 59.8 15.6 16.1 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 14.2 14.1 15.5 1.1 59.2 58.3 13.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 18.1 18.7 18.5 1.4 65.8 62.4 16.9 17.9 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------