***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 29 71 100 20.8 21.1 20.4 1.8 72.3 67.5 18.6 19.4 20.9 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 24 76 100 21.6 21.4 20.4 1.8 72.3 66.8 18.8 19.8 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 21.6 20.8 20.7 1.8 70.9 66.5 18.6 20.0 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 13.9 13.8 17.5 1.7 68.2 65.2 11.2 12.1 13.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 20.3 20.8 18.5 1.3 64.0 62.0 18.5 19.8 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 19.8 20.5 16.9 1.4 63.8 61.5 17.9 19.3 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 25 75 100 20.9 21.0 20.3 1.7 72.2 66.4 18.7 19.3 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 11.5 11.0 17.0 1.2 60.2 60.9 9.1 10.3 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 20.3 20.7 19.1 1.2 63.3 61.7 18.5 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 20.9 20.1 18.0 1.2 61.0 61.3 18.6 19.8 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 20.4 20.1 18.7 1.3 61.8 61.5 19.0 19.8 21.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 21.0 20.6 17.9 1.2 61.5 61.4 18.0 19.8 20.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 21.7 20.5 18.1 1.0 58.8 59.8 18.8 20.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 21.7 20.8 19.2 1.3 61.5 61.7 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 37 63 100 20.4 20.4 19.1 1.8 68.9 66.6 17.1 18.9 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 21.2 21.0 18.3 1.3 61.2 61.5 19.6 20.6 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 20.7 20.4 19.8 1.5 69.0 64.5 18.5 18.8 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 19.8 19.4 17.5 1.2 60.3 60.9 17.4 18.7 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 21.4 20.8 20.5 1.8 71.9 66.7 18.7 19.5 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 17.1 16.4 15.4 0.9 55.8 59.0 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 21.2 20.6 19.9 1.3 64.3 62.7 18.3 19.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 21.1 20.9 19.7 1.3 65.2 62.5 18.9 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 21.6 20.9 20.7 1.9 70.6 66.7 18.8 20.0 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 37 63 100 21.4 20.6 19.3 1.4 63.6 62.5 18.6 19.9 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 19.9 20.1 18.8 1.5 68.4 64.7 18.4 19.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 28 72 100 21.5 20.9 17.5 1.4 66.5 63.2 19.4 19.8 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 28 72 100 21.0 21.0 19.6 1.7 70.9 66.4 18.6 19.2 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 20.8 20.3 18.2 1.7 66.5 64.7 17.2 19.0 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 15.6 15.7 16.7 1.0 56.4 58.8 13.6 15.2 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 24 76 100 21.1 21.3 20.5 1.9 73.0 67.6 18.5 19.3 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------