***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2018.-28.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 5.7 5.3 7.8 0.2 52.3 52.7 2.6 5.2 7.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 5.9 5.8 7.5 0.4 51.8 53.9 3.2 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 7.5 7.3 7.8 0.3 52.7 53.3 5.4 6.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 2.6 1.8 4.9 0.1 49.1 51.2 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 4.8 4.1 5.2 0.1 49.2 51.1 2.9 4.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 4.1 3.6 3.5 0.1 45.9 52.5 2.7 3.6 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 5.8 5.4 7.5 0.3 50.6 53.3 2.8 5.3 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 0.8 -0.5 3.4 -0.1 46.5 50.5 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.8 5.6 0.1 51.0 51.7 3.1 5.7 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 5.2 4.2 4.1 0.0 48.1 51.0 3.3 4.4 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 5.5 4.8 4.5 0.0 47.5 50.7 3.4 5.1 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 75 25 100 4.7 3.7 3.8 0.0 47.5 50.3 2.2 4.1 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.7 3.6 -0.1 47.4 50.5 3.1 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 6.2 5.6 5.6 0.1 49.5 51.8 4.0 5.6 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.9 5.9 0.2 50.6 52.4 4.1 4.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.2 4.1 0.0 47.3 50.4 4.4 5.6 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 5.8 5.4 7.4 0.3 50.7 53.8 3.1 5.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 4.4 3.5 3.4 -0.1 47.3 50.5 2.5 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 5.7 5.3 7.5 0.4 52.3 54.0 2.8 5.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.5 0.4 2.0 -0.2 45.2 49.5 -1.0 1.1 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 6.1 5.9 6.9 0.2 52.1 52.1 2.5 5.6 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.4 4.9 7.2 0.3 50.9 53.6 2.1 4.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 5.5 5.6 7.4 0.3 52.5 53.8 2.8 5.0 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 5.0 4.2 5.2 0.1 48.9 51.8 3.0 4.3 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 6.1 5.9 6.5 0.2 51.2 52.1 3.6 5.7 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 5.5 4.8 3.5 0.0 48.7 51.2 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 6.3 5.9 7.3 0.2 51.2 52.1 3.3 5.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 4.1 3.5 4.9 0.1 49.0 51.1 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 3.1 2.0 3.0 -0.1 46.9 50.2 1.0 2.1 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.9 5.6 7.7 0.3 51.7 53.7 3.1 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------