***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2018.-21.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.2 7.5 9.6 0.7 61.6 57.2 4.4 6.2 7.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 4.4 6.9 9.1 0.7 62.6 58.0 4.4 6.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.8 9.6 0.8 61.5 58.9 6.9 8.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 2.1 4.7 6.8 0.6 62.7 57.9 2.5 3.9 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 5.8 6.4 7.0 0.5 60.1 56.4 4.1 5.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.8 5.2 0.4 55.2 55.2 2.9 4.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.1 9.2 0.7 61.7 57.8 4.4 6.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 2.1 2.5 5.2 0.4 55.2 55.9 -0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 4.5 7.8 7.4 0.5 58.6 56.6 5.3 6.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 6.8 6.5 6.0 0.5 56.0 55.9 4.8 6.3 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 6.4 6.3 6.3 0.4 56.7 55.6 4.4 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 2.8 5.1 5.6 0.4 55.5 55.3 3.4 4.5 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 5.6 5.4 5.3 0.3 52.3 52.9 3.4 4.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 5.0 7.1 7.4 0.6 58.7 57.6 4.9 6.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 7.4 7.5 7.8 0.8 65.5 60.1 4.0 6.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 7.1 7.0 5.8 0.4 56.0 54.8 5.2 6.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.7 7.0 8.9 0.7 60.9 58.1 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 6.0 5.8 5.3 0.5 55.1 56.6 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 53 47 0 100 4.9 7.5 9.2 0.7 63.4 58.2 4.4 6.8 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.2 1.7 3.8 0.4 52.7 55.1 -0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 4.3 7.1 8.7 0.6 59.3 57.2 4.9 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 6.1 6.6 8.7 0.6 60.5 57.6 4.1 5.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 6.8 7.3 9.1 0.7 63.7 58.5 4.1 6.3 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.4 7.1 0.6 59.1 58.1 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 54 46 0 100 4.8 7.5 8.2 0.6 59.6 56.5 5.0 6.4 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 3.7 5.6 5.1 0.3 53.0 53.9 4.1 5.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 53 47 0 100 5.1 7.6 9.0 0.6 60.0 56.1 4.7 6.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 5.5 5.7 6.9 0.6 62.3 58.0 2.6 5.1 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 5.4 5.1 4.8 0.5 54.8 56.2 2.8 5.1 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 4.8 7.8 9.4 0.7 62.4 58.2 5.2 7.0 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------