***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2018.-14.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9.6 8.6 10.9 1.1 65.1 61.7 6.9 7.7 8.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 6.6 8.7 10.3 0.8 64.5 59.9 7.2 7.6 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 37 63 100 11.0 10.7 10.8 1.0 63.9 61.4 9.2 10.3 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 5.8 6.2 8.0 1.0 65.7 62.0 5.0 5.5 6.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.7 8.6 0.8 61.0 59.3 6.4 7.3 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.0 6.2 0.5 56.9 56.8 5.4 6.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 9.0 9.0 10.5 0.9 64.5 60.8 7.2 7.8 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 3.1 2.6 6.1 0.4 53.6 54.7 1.7 2.6 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 8.7 8.8 8.4 0.5 56.0 56.0 7.3 8.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.0 6.9 0.3 52.6 54.1 7.5 8.0 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 8.0 7.8 7.7 0.5 55.7 56.0 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 7.0 7.1 6.9 0.5 55.9 56.2 5.7 6.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 7.7 7.5 6.6 0.3 51.4 52.5 5.7 7.4 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 8.9 8.6 8.2 0.3 54.8 55.0 7.6 8.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 9.2 9.3 9.4 0.9 65.5 62.7 7.5 8.2 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.6 8.6 7.2 0.5 55.1 55.7 7.6 8.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 38 62 100 9.3 9.1 9.9 0.7 61.7 58.8 7.4 7.7 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 7.3 6.9 6.2 0.2 49.9 53.0 6.4 6.9 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 8.2 8.5 10.3 0.8 63.0 59.8 7.1 7.8 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.6 3.0 4.8 0.3 50.5 53.3 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 7.9 8.1 9.8 0.7 59.4 58.2 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.3 9.9 0.5 56.1 57.2 6.4 7.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 8.0 8.3 10.2 0.7 60.9 59.5 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.7 7.8 8.2 0.4 54.1 55.6 6.8 7.3 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 37 63 100 9.2 8.9 10.0 1.1 65.6 61.9 6.9 7.8 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.8 6.5 0.5 55.5 55.9 6.3 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 8.4 9.1 10.5 1.1 64.9 61.2 6.8 7.6 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 7.2 7.6 8.2 0.8 63.3 60.7 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 6.4 6.1 5.5 0.1 49.2 51.9 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 9.3 9.0 10.7 1.0 65.5 61.2 7.3 7.7 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------