***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2018.-07.10.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 8.2 8.0 10.3 -1.1 33.6 36.3 7.9 9.8 10.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 7.9 8.0 9.6 -1.3 26.4 31.6 8.6 10.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 10.3 10.8 10.3 -1.1 31.7 34.0 10.9 11.7 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 7.5 6.0 8.0 -0.8 41.4 39.3 5.8 6.9 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 61 39 0 100 7.0 7.6 8.7 -1.1 32.9 34.5 7.6 8.8 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 5.9 6.4 6.3 -0.9 32.9 37.3 6.4 8.2 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 66 34 0 100 8.4 8.2 9.7 -1.3 27.9 32.0 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 2.6 2.3 6.2 -1.1 28.9 33.3 2.5 4.1 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 66 34 0 100 8.4 8.7 8.5 -1.2 27.9 32.1 9.1 10.2 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 63 37 0 100 7.8 7.7 6.9 -1.3 26.6 31.5 8.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 64 36 0 100 6.8 7.5 8.0 -1.2 29.3 32.2 7.6 8.9 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 64 36 0 100 5.6 5.9 7.1 -1.2 27.4 33.2 6.7 8.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 6.2 5.9 6.8 -1.5 21.7 28.6 7.3 8.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 70 30 0 100 8.5 8.0 7.7 -1.7 18.0 23.9 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 10.5 9.7 9.8 -0.6 41.7 42.1 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 8.1 8.1 7.4 -1.3 27.4 31.7 8.4 10.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 70 30 0 100 8.4 8.4 9.2 -1.4 25.2 29.4 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 6.2 6.3 6.2 -1.5 22.7 27.6 7.3 8.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 65 35 0 100 8.2 8.3 9.7 -1.3 28.2 32.4 8.5 9.7 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 69 31 0 100 2.6 1.8 4.9 -1.3 24.7 31.0 3.1 5.2 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 68 32 0 100 7.7 7.8 9.5 -1.2 28.1 31.8 8.4 9.6 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 7.4 7.1 9.3 -1.6 22.4 27.2 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 59 41 0 100 8.1 7.8 9.7 -1.2 29.5 32.0 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 66 34 0 100 7.6 7.1 7.9 -1.5 22.0 26.9 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 8.5 8.8 9.8 -1.0 34.4 37.3 8.8 10.2 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 6.7 6.4 6.6 -1.2 27.6 33.4 6.8 9.0 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 8.5 8.6 9.9 -1.2 31.2 35.0 8.7 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 6.1 7.9 8.3 -0.9 38.5 38.2 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 6.2 6.1 5.5 -1.5 21.1 27.7 6.6 7.5 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 66 34 0 100 8.8 8.7 10.1 -1.1 30.6 34.3 8.9 10.3 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------