***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 9.6 92.1 62.2 49.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 5.3 4.5 8.5 74.7 53.9 45.6 1.0 3.3 9.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 7.4 6.7 8.8 83.6 60.5 47.4 1.9 4.9 9.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 8.1 15.2 12.2 111.3 68.6 49.7 1.4 4.5 13.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.4 13.5 10.8 103.3 68.4 46.9 2.5 5.7 10.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 57 43 0 100 1.4 9.0 11.3 104.9 66.7 47.0 0.5 3.2 8.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.2 8.7 76.9 54.0 46.1 1.7 4.1 7.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 4.8 11.4 10.1 93.3 61.7 44.6 2.8 9.0 14.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.2 7.5 9.9 96.8 65.9 45.2 2.1 6.0 7.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 3.3 10.3 10.1 92.8 62.3 44.4 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 52 48 0 100 2.3 8.3 9.6 99.4 66.3 44.6 2.3 4.6 8.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 1.9 6.9 9.3 101.6 65.4 45.1 1.1 4.1 7.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.9 8.9 10.6 107.1 66.9 46.5 1.9 4.4 8.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 11.2 9.8 8.7 70.6 53.8 44.5 2.8 8.1 13.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 2.1 10.5 12.6 116.7 71.9 50.0 1.5 4.0 8.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 1.4 9.0 10.2 106.6 69.0 46.1 2.1 3.2 6.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 4.5 2.3 8.4 73.5 51.6 46.0 1.1 2.3 11.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 10.0 7.9 10.5 88.0 58.0 44.3 1.4 7.3 9.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 7.1 6.0 8.2 72.9 54.7 45.4 1.1 4.2 9.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 8.5 9.5 14.2 93.4 59.3 46.9 2.0 5.3 10.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 7.7 9.4 9.7 96.9 65.3 46.8 1.8 5.5 9.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 7.7 5.6 8.8 72.6 50.3 44.7 2.6 5.6 11.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 9.6 8.5 7.9 70.1 54.6 45.5 1.6 6.4 11.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.4 6.8 9.0 79.2 57.7 44.4 2.4 6.2 10.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 3.8 6.2 12.3 111.2 66.3 51.1 0.5 2.6 6.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 1.7 9.9 10.1 107.1 66.3 47.5 1.2 4.2 9.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 4.9 3.6 11.4 103.0 64.5 50.8 1.0 2.3 4.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 6.5 9.3 11.6 110.4 70.8 48.8 2.0 4.3 7.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.4 10.8 11.3 84.9 57.5 44.6 2.3 8.3 16.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 6.4 5.0 8.7 78.5 56.0 47.0 0.5 4.3 6.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------