***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.8 117.4 67.1 53.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 2.0 7.7 12.2 119.4 64.6 55.1 0.5 4.4 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 11.5 15.6 10.5 113.2 66.1 53.7 1.3 8.4 15.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 3.4 19.3 14.2 131.0 70.4 56.6 3.2 6.7 15.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 10.5 16.3 12.9 123.8 68.0 55.6 1.7 8.2 15.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.9 14.9 104.4 60.9 52.5 1.0 3.4 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 6.1 8.3 12.7 126.2 66.2 56.4 0.9 3.8 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 12.6 17.3 13.2 107.3 66.9 53.2 5.3 10.2 17.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 9.8 14.4 11.9 118.2 66.5 54.6 4.5 7.8 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 14.3 16.4 12.7 111.4 66.7 54.1 2.8 10.9 16.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 11.9 15.0 11.8 112.2 68.6 54.0 2.0 10.0 14.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.1 11.3 11.3 103.2 67.1 51.5 1.6 7.6 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 10.0 11.4 13.0 101.8 62.1 52.2 1.1 8.0 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 18.7 25.8 12.4 103.3 65.2 51.6 7.8 14.7 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.4 12.8 14.6 131.1 72.0 55.4 1.0 3.1 6.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 8.8 14.1 12.2 105.6 65.3 52.8 1.3 6.6 14.2 30 Nis 06700G01 53 47 0 100 0.8 10.0 13.5 129.3 70.0 56.2 0.6 1.8 8.7 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 4.3 16.9 13.9 107.1 62.7 53.1 3.8 7.9 17.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.3 12.8 11.4 112.6 64.0 53.6 3.3 9.3 13.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 12.5 16.2 19.1 108.9 63.3 53.7 2.9 9.0 17.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 8.4 15.7 11.0 119.4 68.8 54.1 2.0 6.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 2.7 13.1 13.0 119.3 66.8 54.2 0.6 5.6 12.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 10.9 13.4 10.7 105.7 63.2 51.8 2.4 8.2 13.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 7.0 16.0 11.9 107.3 64.8 52.5 3.4 13.8 16.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 7.5 18.3 13.3 126.4 72.7 56.3 1.4 4.0 14.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 9.5 11.7 13.9 112.3 65.9 52.4 0.5 6.1 12.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 8.0 15.4 12.3 120.5 69.3 55.1 2.4 5.2 15.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 2.6 11.9 13.9 124.8 69.1 55.1 3.0 5.3 10.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 7.4 21.4 15.4 104.4 61.3 52.4 6.1 13.4 22.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 3.3 11.0 11.4 115.5 63.5 54.6 1.2 6.8 12.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------