***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 9999.0 0.0 10.4 88.9 53.4 44.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 7.9 5.4 10.1 81.6 52.3 44.2 1.7 4.2 11.0 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 2.8 8.1 10.3 84.0 52.7 44.4 0.6 6.9 12.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 63 37 0 100 4.2 9.9 9.7 73.0 50.4 42.1 3.0 9.6 18.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 63 37 0 100 1.4 4.3 10.4 81.8 51.7 42.9 1.6 3.8 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 4.2 11.4 12.1 74.6 56.5 43.6 3.9 8.3 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 7.2 3.5 10.1 83.6 52.3 45.6 0.7 2.6 13.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.8 14.7 11.6 80.2 55.6 45.8 7.6 12.4 22.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 61 39 0 100 3.0 9.6 11.0 89.4 55.0 44.9 1.4 7.8 17.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 4.2 13.2 11.7 83.3 54.4 44.7 2.2 9.1 18.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.0 8.0 9.5 77.2 52.8 43.3 1.0 6.6 14.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.2 10.2 9.4 73.8 52.8 44.3 1.2 6.5 15.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 54 46 0 100 3.1 13.8 11.0 74.9 54.6 44.8 2.5 5.9 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 2.5 8.1 13.1 84.8 54.3 44.0 1.5 6.1 20.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 1.2 3.9 9.7 72.1 57.2 44.0 0.4 2.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.8 8.7 10.1 76.4 53.7 44.4 1.1 5.8 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 4.7 1.8 9.7 76.4 52.4 43.5 0.3 1.1 6.4 30 Palic 37000G16 55 45 0 100 6.7 16.8 14.0 85.6 53.8 45.1 2.8 14.6 19.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 7.7 2.1 10.4 82.2 52.6 44.3 0.6 2.0 11.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 12.3 13.0 19.4 97.3 57.9 49.9 5.4 9.6 13.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 3.5 11.0 10.5 90.3 54.8 45.4 4.0 8.3 19.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 8.9 6.1 10.5 79.9 51.6 43.9 0.1 4.5 10.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 8.1 3.3 10.8 83.0 53.6 44.3 0.4 2.5 10.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 2.8 6.8 11.9 80.1 51.2 42.3 1.6 6.6 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 3.4 9.5 11.4 89.5 52.9 45.8 1.7 8.1 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 13.9 13.7 10.6 72.6 57.2 46.3 5.7 10.0 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 2.0 5.9 11.3 91.6 55.1 45.5 1.4 4.6 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 1.0 4.2 9.4 71.0 54.5 43.4 1.0 2.3 12.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 8.6 21.4 16.2 89.6 54.3 46.8 5.0 17.8 25.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 1.4 3.1 10.4 85.1 53.3 44.6 0.8 3.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------