***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 9999.0 0.0 12.9 113.9 67.8 56.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 5.2 10.9 11.8 102.5 64.5 54.5 0.4 3.0 11.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 78 22 100 7.4 9.4 10.7 98.7 63.3 53.0 2.6 4.4 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 17.2 15.5 9.4 84.3 63.3 51.2 4.6 12.3 15.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.6 12.1 8.4 76.8 57.9 47.8 2.6 9.2 15.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 7.2 5.6 8.6 73.1 55.4 47.4 1.2 3.3 11.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.5 10.6 13.1 111.5 64.7 56.6 0.3 3.3 11.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 17.0 15.2 7.8 66.5 54.2 46.7 5.8 14.8 20.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 3.4 8.5 8.2 74.8 54.5 46.7 1.6 6.5 14.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.0 9.0 75.2 56.8 48.6 2.6 10.7 17.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 13.0 13.2 7.4 72.8 58.6 49.8 2.0 11.3 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 8.9 7.7 6.2 61.4 52.4 46.0 1.2 6.5 15.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 9.8 3.5 6.5 58.3 43.8 43.3 2.1 5.4 16.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 9.5 11.3 11.7 88.5 57.5 50.8 3.1 6.3 17.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 8.9 13.1 8.2 73.2 60.8 49.4 2.0 6.8 14.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 1.3 2.9 7.0 65.4 51.4 46.2 0.6 2.7 15.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 5.4 10.6 11.9 97.7 59.1 53.0 0.3 3.5 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 12.6 11.0 10.2 76.9 54.5 47.4 3.0 10.4 14.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 5.9 9.0 11.2 98.0 63.1 53.9 2.0 3.4 11.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 15.6 12.0 9.3 60.0 44.2 41.2 5.3 13.3 17.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.0 11.2 9.7 90.1 59.0 50.7 1.9 8.1 11.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 6.3 8.1 10.7 83.6 55.7 47.8 0.7 4.4 12.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 7.0 9.9 11.0 95.2 60.6 53.7 1.5 3.8 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 10.5 10.2 10.5 86.6 56.9 49.9 3.7 8.3 13.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 1.9 6.8 11.5 95.0 63.1 51.5 1.8 3.7 7.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 1.4 1.5 6.4 55.0 44.7 41.8 1.2 2.8 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 5.1 7.5 13.9 110.9 67.2 55.6 0.9 2.8 7.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.3 16.5 8.1 75.8 61.6 50.0 3.8 10.6 17.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 15.6 11.7 10.0 70.9 50.8 44.6 6.0 11.6 25.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 7.0 10.7 12.1 106.5 65.2 55.6 0.9 4.8 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------