***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 9999.0 0.0 43.7 102.5 58.0 51.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 41.1 29.0 42.6 93.6 47.2 47.5 14.4 34.9 53.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 47.1 34.3 40.3 93.9 49.2 46.7 18.3 35.6 58.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 64.3 63.3 45.4 98.4 55.7 48.9 29.0 56.1 78.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 24.0 42.3 42.5 95.4 55.2 47.1 28.7 38.3 51.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 45.7 38.7 46.9 88.4 48.7 45.3 27.5 38.9 51.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 36.1 29.8 44.6 98.7 53.9 50.6 17.1 26.7 45.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 56 44 0 100 38.3 46.3 42.7 86.6 46.2 43.4 42.1 49.8 70.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 60 40 0 100 25.6 36.5 41.0 94.1 52.8 45.7 23.6 35.7 51.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 31.1 37.5 43.5 90.1 47.2 44.4 32.6 40.2 60.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 25.1 35.9 38.4 89.8 48.7 45.4 28.6 36.7 53.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 27.2 37.1 36.2 84.2 46.3 42.7 25.9 38.4 51.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 44.7 35.0 41.2 84.8 47.3 43.6 26.4 37.1 54.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 39.6 51.1 45.9 86.6 42.6 42.5 39.5 59.8 80.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 41.4 45.5 45.2 96.9 58.6 48.9 20.8 32.5 58.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 22.1 31.2 39.5 87.8 49.9 44.9 21.0 31.3 47.1 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 17.6 30.2 43.5 93.0 50.9 46.8 17.2 29.8 42.3 30 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 31.9 45.8 48.6 89.1 44.5 43.0 33.7 48.9 63.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 25.2 32.1 41.1 90.7 45.0 45.7 18.1 39.2 63.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 38.1 48.6 62.1 90.8 50.0 45.0 38.0 48.5 65.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 23.2 37.1 40.9 98.3 55.1 47.8 24.0 33.8 55.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 22.2 30.8 43.0 87.8 44.1 43.3 22.3 32.3 47.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 25.6 36.2 40.4 87.9 44.9 43.8 25.3 40.8 67.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 28.8 29.0 43.2 87.5 42.8 41.9 25.3 41.1 61.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 42.7 41.4 48.6 104.5 57.1 51.2 16.8 31.9 53.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 48.1 33.1 41.0 85.4 42.3 43.5 27.6 40.6 52.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 37.4 33.3 49.0 105.9 57.5 52.6 14.7 29.0 52.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 43.2 43.8 42.9 94.3 55.4 47.5 19.7 38.5 50.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 47.0 58.4 52.9 87.9 45.2 42.4 46.1 64.3 77.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 39.6 30.8 42.5 95.7 49.2 48.7 17.6 31.3 57.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 na severozapadu 0.6-0.7, u ostalim krajevima 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------