***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 25 75 100 9999.0 0.0 19.9 2.2 85.4 77.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 19.5 20.1 19.6 2.1 83.1 76.0 17.8 18.6 18.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 25 75 100 19.7 20.5 20.1 2.3 86.6 77.8 18.1 18.7 19.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 16 84 100 12.9 13.8 18.4 2.3 84.7 79.9 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 20.0 20.8 18.9 2.3 88.2 79.1 18.1 18.5 19.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 17 83 100 19.4 20.1 17.7 2.4 88.2 80.4 17.1 17.9 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 19.1 19.7 19.4 2.0 80.2 74.8 17.5 18.2 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 10.5 11.5 17.7 2.2 88.6 78.1 8.6 9.3 9.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 22 78 100 20.1 21.0 19.4 2.3 89.0 78.6 18.1 18.7 19.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 24 76 100 19.5 20.3 18.4 2.2 88.5 77.6 17.5 18.2 19.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 15 85 100 20.3 21.2 18.8 2.4 90.2 79.7 18.0 18.7 19.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 15 85 100 19.9 20.7 18.6 2.4 90.0 80.1 17.5 18.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 14 86 100 20.7 21.6 18.6 2.5 88.9 81.2 18.5 18.8 19.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 26 74 100 20.2 20.8 19.0 2.1 81.6 74.8 18.6 19.2 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 15 85 100 18.6 19.7 19.1 2.5 87.5 83.4 17.1 17.9 18.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 14 86 100 21.2 21.9 18.7 2.5 88.9 81.0 18.8 19.3 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 18.7 19.0 18.9 1.8 78.4 73.0 17.3 18.0 18.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 27 73 100 19.0 19.8 17.7 2.0 84.5 75.0 17.1 17.9 18.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 27 73 100 19.3 20.0 19.9 2.2 86.1 77.6 17.8 18.5 19.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 16.2 17.2 15.6 1.8 83.9 74.2 13.9 15.0 16.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 23 77 100 19.8 20.5 19.8 2.2 86.7 77.3 17.9 18.5 19.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 19.3 19.6 19.1 1.8 79.3 73.7 17.9 18.6 19.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 19.7 20.6 20.1 2.4 88.5 78.7 18.2 18.8 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 27 73 100 20.1 20.7 19.0 2.1 84.1 76.0 18.1 19.2 19.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 22 78 100 18.9 19.8 18.7 2.2 86.3 78.9 17.4 18.0 18.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 16 84 100 19.9 20.7 17.9 2.2 84.2 78.0 18.0 18.5 19.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 24 76 100 19.5 20.5 19.2 2.1 85.2 77.4 18.0 18.3 19.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 16 84 100 19.3 19.9 18.9 2.4 85.8 81.0 17.5 18.0 18.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 26 74 100 15.3 15.9 16.8 1.9 83.4 73.8 13.0 14.4 14.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 28 72 100 19.2 20.1 19.9 2.2 84.8 77.0 17.7 18.3 18.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------