***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 39 61 100 9999.0 0.0 17.1 1.6 67.8 63.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 17.3 17.6 16.9 1.6 66.2 63.5 14.0 15.3 17.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 18.1 18.2 17.4 1.7 67.6 64.3 14.8 16.3 17.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 11.4 10.5 15.5 1.6 67.9 64.2 7.0 8.9 10.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 39 61 100 17.9 17.2 16.0 1.6 63.0 63.9 13.7 16.1 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 15.9 17.6 14.9 1.8 65.3 64.8 13.5 15.3 17.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.8 17.6 16.7 1.5 67.5 62.6 13.4 15.0 17.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.9 14.9 1.5 60.5 63.0 5.8 7.4 9.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 18.3 17.9 16.5 1.6 60.7 63.7 14.0 16.6 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 16.8 17.3 15.6 1.5 61.0 63.2 13.3 16.3 17.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 39 61 100 18.4 18.0 15.9 1.6 64.8 64.4 13.5 17.0 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 16.7 17.2 15.7 1.6 62.0 64.2 13.1 16.2 17.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 16.7 18.2 15.5 1.7 62.9 64.6 13.9 16.0 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 39 61 100 18.5 17.8 16.5 1.6 63.1 62.9 14.6 16.6 18.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 16.4 16.5 15.8 1.7 73.9 65.6 13.3 14.4 15.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 18.8 19.1 15.7 1.7 65.4 64.9 14.5 17.2 19.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 15.6 16.8 16.4 1.4 65.9 62.2 13.3 14.8 16.8 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.9 16.6 15.1 1.4 59.7 61.8 13.0 15.4 17.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 39 61 100 17.7 17.6 17.3 1.7 67.2 64.4 13.9 15.5 17.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.5 14.0 13.0 1.2 57.9 60.6 10.7 12.9 14.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 39 61 100 17.7 17.8 16.9 1.6 61.5 63.4 14.0 16.2 17.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 40 60 100 17.6 17.4 16.6 1.5 66.2 62.8 13.8 15.4 17.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 39 61 100 17.8 18.1 17.5 1.8 67.5 64.9 14.3 15.6 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 39 61 100 18.5 18.1 16.5 1.6 62.9 63.0 14.2 17.0 18.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 38 62 100 16.9 16.9 15.8 1.5 67.0 64.0 13.5 14.7 16.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 79 21 100 16.6 17.3 15.1 1.5 62.5 63.4 14.5 15.9 17.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 39 61 100 17.6 17.5 16.4 1.5 67.3 63.1 14.3 15.7 17.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 16.7 16.0 15.8 1.7 70.6 64.6 13.1 14.5 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 12.7 13.0 14.3 1.3 58.4 61.2 9.8 12.2 13.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 17.4 17.7 17.1 1.6 68.3 63.7 13.6 15.0 17.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------