***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 9999.0 0.0 18.7 1.8 66.3 64.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 83 17 100 18.4 18.6 18.4 1.8 67.5 64.4 16.6 18.3 18.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 18.5 19.1 18.8 1.9 68.4 64.8 17.7 18.3 19.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 11.5 12.4 17.2 1.9 69.7 65.3 9.4 11.1 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 83 17 100 18.6 19.5 17.6 1.9 69.3 64.6 17.1 18.1 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 17.9 19.4 16.6 2.1 68.9 65.5 15.2 17.4 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 17.8 18.3 18.2 1.7 66.5 64.2 16.5 17.6 18.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 10.6 10.5 16.6 1.8 68.6 64.2 7.3 9.0 10.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 18.9 20.4 18.1 1.9 68.9 64.4 17.5 18.5 19.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 18.3 19.4 17.2 1.9 69.2 64.0 16.7 17.9 18.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 18.8 19.9 17.6 2.0 69.1 65.5 16.8 18.3 19.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 19.5 19.1 17.5 2.0 68.8 65.4 16.3 17.9 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 20.1 20.2 17.2 2.0 70.0 65.5 16.3 18.6 19.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 19.0 19.5 17.8 1.7 68.1 63.2 18.0 18.7 19.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 36 64 100 17.9 18.3 17.5 2.0 71.7 67.3 15.1 16.3 17.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 83 17 100 19.4 20.9 17.5 2.1 70.6 65.6 17.0 18.9 20.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 83 17 100 17.6 17.9 17.9 1.6 66.6 63.3 15.4 17.4 17.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 18.1 18.5 16.6 1.7 67.1 62.5 16.0 17.9 18.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.9 18.7 1.9 69.1 64.9 16.9 18.0 18.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 15.0 15.7 14.5 1.4 64.8 60.9 12.9 14.4 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 18.3 19.3 18.5 1.8 67.3 64.3 17.7 18.0 19.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 18.6 19.0 18.0 1.6 66.9 63.3 15.7 18.4 18.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 82 18 100 18.5 18.9 18.8 2.0 70.6 65.2 16.6 18.3 18.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 19.0 19.5 17.8 1.8 68.3 63.7 17.7 18.6 19.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 17.7 18.0 17.4 1.8 67.0 64.8 16.5 17.3 18.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 18.0 19.4 16.7 1.6 67.4 63.1 16.3 17.5 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 83 17 100 18.2 19.5 18.0 1.8 66.5 64.5 17.2 17.9 19.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 44 56 100 18.2 19.5 17.6 2.0 70.5 66.0 15.6 16.1 18.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 14.1 15.1 15.7 1.5 65.4 61.5 13.1 13.7 15.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 83 17 100 18.1 18.7 18.6 1.8 67.8 64.8 16.9 17.9 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------