***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 9999.0 0.0 19.9 1.7 71.4 66.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 35 65 100 21.3 21.6 19.7 1.6 73.6 65.3 18.8 19.8 20.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 39 61 100 21.4 20.8 20.1 1.8 70.4 66.1 18.6 20.0 20.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 29 71 100 14.1 14.6 18.7 2.0 76.8 69.6 11.2 12.1 13.6 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 21.1 21.7 18.8 1.8 74.1 67.3 18.5 19.8 20.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 20.7 21.3 17.7 1.9 71.8 68.6 17.9 19.3 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 34 66 100 20.7 20.8 19.5 1.4 71.4 64.7 18.7 19.3 20.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 11.5 11.4 17.7 1.7 69.5 66.7 9.1 10.3 11.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 32 68 100 21.3 21.8 19.2 1.8 72.6 66.6 18.5 19.8 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 21.0 20.7 18.2 1.7 70.2 66.2 18.6 19.8 20.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 31 69 100 21.4 21.9 18.7 1.9 73.0 68.1 19.0 19.8 21.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 31 69 100 21.1 21.4 18.6 1.9 70.8 68.3 18.0 19.8 20.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 30 70 100 21.8 21.4 18.4 1.9 70.5 68.5 18.8 20.4 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 21.8 21.0 18.8 1.6 63.0 63.9 18.6 20.1 21.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 24 76 100 20.8 22.0 19.2 2.3 82.3 73.4 17.1 18.9 20.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 22.3 22.8 18.6 1.9 72.8 68.6 19.6 20.6 21.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 20.6 20.4 19.0 1.3 68.5 63.4 18.5 18.8 20.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 19.9 19.7 17.5 1.5 62.6 64.4 17.4 18.7 19.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 21.1 21.3 19.9 1.7 74.1 65.8 18.7 19.5 20.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 17.1 16.8 15.5 1.3 63.1 63.7 14.5 16.1 17.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 33 67 100 21.3 21.0 19.6 1.8 71.5 66.2 18.3 19.7 20.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 34 66 100 21.1 21.0 19.1 1.3 66.1 63.5 18.9 19.5 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 36 64 100 21.5 21.0 20.0 1.8 71.6 66.0 18.8 20.0 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 21.5 20.5 18.9 1.7 62.7 64.9 18.6 19.9 20.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 19.9 20.2 18.7 1.8 75.6 67.9 18.4 19.1 20.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 21.3 20.8 17.8 1.5 65.6 65.9 19.4 19.8 20.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 20.9 21.2 19.2 1.7 72.8 66.6 18.6 19.2 20.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 26 74 100 21.1 21.7 19.0 2.1 77.4 70.6 17.2 19.0 20.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 16.4 16.0 16.6 1.3 61.9 63.3 13.6 15.2 16.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 20.8 21.3 19.9 1.7 72.8 65.8 18.5 19.3 20.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------