***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 8 92 100 9999.0 0.0 24.0 3.8 89.3 87.3 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 10 90 100 22.9 24.2 23.4 3.3 86.7 84.1 20.7 21.5 22.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 9 91 100 23.9 24.6 24.1 3.8 90.4 87.3 21.1 21.4 22.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 17.5 18.4 22.2 3.9 89.0 86.4 13.4 14.8 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 6 94 100 23.9 24.8 23.2 4.0 90.3 88.1 20.8 21.8 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 5 95 100 22.6 24.4 21.4 4.0 89.8 87.3 20.2 20.6 21.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 10 90 100 22.6 23.0 23.2 3.2 84.4 82.8 20.5 21.3 22.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 5 95 100 13.1 15.0 21.6 4.0 91.9 88.5 10.5 11.7 12.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 6 94 100 23.6 25.0 23.9 4.0 91.8 88.8 21.1 22.0 22.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 23.2 24.3 22.4 3.9 90.4 87.7 20.7 21.6 22.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 5 95 100 23.8 25.3 23.1 4.0 91.3 88.1 20.8 22.3 22.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 5 95 100 23.5 25.5 22.7 4.3 94.9 90.4 20.1 21.2 22.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 6 94 100 24.0 26.1 23.1 4.5 96.9 91.8 21.0 21.9 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 10 90 100 23.8 25.2 22.9 3.3 88.4 84.7 21.6 22.3 23.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 4 96 100 23.9 24.4 23.8 4.2 93.6 89.7 19.9 20.7 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 5 95 100 24.6 26.3 23.1 4.3 94.3 90.0 21.6 22.6 23.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 13 87 100 21.9 22.3 22.5 2.8 80.7 80.4 19.8 20.9 21.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 10 90 100 22.8 24.3 21.4 3.5 88.1 85.6 19.9 21.5 22.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 9 91 100 23.1 24.1 23.8 3.6 89.0 86.1 20.7 21.3 22.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 9 91 100 18.9 20.3 19.5 3.5 90.2 86.9 16.4 18.0 18.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 9 91 100 23.8 24.5 24.1 3.7 88.7 86.5 21.0 21.8 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 11 89 100 23.0 23.6 22.6 2.9 83.6 81.5 20.3 21.8 22.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 8 92 100 23.3 24.2 24.1 4.0 90.6 88.7 20.8 21.6 22.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 10 90 100 23.3 24.7 22.8 3.5 88.7 85.7 20.9 21.9 22.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 10 90 100 23.0 24.0 22.9 3.8 88.9 87.1 20.0 20.9 22.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 5 95 100 23.6 26.2 22.2 4.1 95.6 90.1 20.6 21.4 22.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 9 91 100 23.4 24.4 23.3 3.6 88.7 86.3 19.9 21.6 22.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 8 92 100 24.1 25.2 23.0 4.0 91.1 87.5 20.1 21.7 23.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 10 90 100 18.4 19.7 20.6 3.4 88.9 85.5 16.2 17.2 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 9 91 100 22.7 24.1 23.8 3.6 89.2 85.8 20.4 21.5 22.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------