***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 9999.0 0.0 11.4 1.9 83.8 77.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 8.3 8.8 10.8 1.6 80.1 73.7 6.3 7.3 8.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 10.1 11.0 11.2 1.9 83.3 79.2 8.6 9.3 10.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 5.4 6.5 9.2 1.9 86.1 80.9 3.9 4.2 5.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 20 80 100 7.7 8.2 9.4 1.9 85.5 80.2 5.8 7.0 7.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 15 85 100 6.9 7.6 7.8 2.1 89.5 85.2 5.5 6.1 6.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 8.0 8.5 10.8 1.6 80.8 73.4 6.2 7.4 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 25 75 100 2.8 3.3 8.0 1.8 84.6 80.4 1.3 2.0 2.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 8.5 9.4 9.9 2.0 86.2 80.7 6.8 7.6 8.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 8.0 8.4 8.5 1.8 84.5 79.5 6.4 7.2 8.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 7.8 8.3 9.0 1.9 85.4 81.3 6.1 6.9 7.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 19 81 100 6.7 7.0 8.6 1.9 85.7 82.0 5.6 6.0 6.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 17 83 100 7.5 7.9 8.2 2.0 88.1 82.6 6.0 6.4 6.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 8.3 9.0 9.7 1.8 83.9 78.5 6.9 7.9 8.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 8.2 8.5 10.0 2.2 90.1 85.9 6.8 7.8 8.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 17 83 100 8.6 9.1 8.7 2.0 87.0 82.7 7.2 7.8 8.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 37 63 100 8.1 8.5 10.3 1.3 76.5 70.3 6.1 7.4 8.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 32 68 100 6.9 7.2 7.8 1.7 82.6 77.4 5.4 6.3 6.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 8.2 8.6 10.9 1.7 82.2 76.1 6.2 7.5 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 31 69 100 3.6 3.9 6.4 1.6 80.9 76.3 2.4 2.9 3.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 30 70 100 7.9 8.7 10.8 1.9 83.8 79.6 6.4 7.0 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 7.3 7.6 10.3 1.4 77.9 71.6 5.5 6.8 7.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 7.9 8.5 10.9 1.9 86.2 80.0 6.2 7.2 7.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 7.4 7.9 9.5 1.8 83.9 79.2 6.3 7.0 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 8.6 9.4 10.1 1.9 84.0 79.3 6.7 7.5 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 20 80 100 7.4 7.8 8.3 1.8 83.0 80.9 6.3 6.6 7.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 33 67 100 8.6 9.7 10.7 1.9 83.6 77.7 6.5 7.5 8.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 13 87 100 6.7 7.1 9.5 2.0 87.7 83.5 5.3 6.2 6.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 29 71 100 6.4 7.0 7.3 1.7 83.3 77.8 4.4 5.3 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 8.5 9.1 11.1 1.8 82.4 75.8 6.5 7.6 8.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------