***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 22.10.2012.-28.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 9.2 1.4 64.5 62.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 82 18 100 6.0 6.4 8.7 1.2 58.4 60.0 3.2 5.6 7.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 7.6 8.6 8.9 1.4 63.2 63.1 5.4 6.9 9.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 3.9 3.2 6.8 1.3 63.5 63.5 0.4 1.9 3.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 4.7 5.5 6.9 1.3 62.5 62.4 2.9 4.2 5.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 4.1 4.9 5.2 1.3 62.5 64.9 2.7 3.6 5.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 5.9 6.2 8.7 1.2 60.0 59.7 2.8 5.3 6.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 0.7 1.2 5.6 1.2 60.1 61.5 -1.7 0.1 1.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 42 58 100 7.4 6.4 7.6 1.3 62.1 62.8 3.1 5.7 7.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 5.1 6.5 6.2 1.2 61.3 61.9 3.3 4.4 6.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 5.5 5.6 6.5 1.2 62.7 62.4 3.4 5.1 5.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 4.7 5.2 6.1 1.2 60.2 61.7 2.2 4.1 5.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.8 5.6 1.1 59.5 61.7 3.1 5.0 6.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 7.4 6.2 7.5 1.3 61.3 62.1 4.0 5.6 6.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 6.1 5.7 7.3 1.5 68.9 66.6 4.1 4.8 5.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 6.1 6.7 6.0 1.2 63.4 62.9 4.4 5.6 7.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 82 18 100 5.8 6.0 8.4 1.1 56.6 58.3 3.1 5.3 6.6 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 4.4 4.6 5.7 1.2 60.2 61.4 2.5 3.7 5.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 5.7 6.2 8.8 1.3 58.8 60.9 2.8 5.1 6.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 79 21 100 1.5 2.0 4.4 1.0 55.5 59.3 -1.0 1.1 2.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 37 63 100 7.1 6.5 8.4 1.4 62.9 63.0 2.5 5.6 6.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 82 18 100 5.4 5.6 8.4 1.1 56.8 58.8 2.1 4.9 6.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 5.5 6.5 8.6 1.4 61.0 62.5 2.8 5.0 6.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 6.2 6.0 7.3 1.4 62.1 63.1 3.0 4.3 6.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 6.2 7.3 7.7 1.4 62.5 63.0 3.6 5.7 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 37 63 100 6.4 6.0 5.8 1.1 60.7 62.6 3.3 4.9 6.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.5 8.5 1.4 62.8 62.3 3.3 5.7 7.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 5.0 4.9 6.9 1.4 67.0 65.0 2.4 3.6 4.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 3.0 4.8 5.3 1.1 59.9 61.0 1.0 2.1 5.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 5.9 7.1 8.9 1.3 61.4 61.0 3.1 5.4 7.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------