***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 15.10.2012.-21.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 10.6 1.8 72.4 66.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 7.7 8.1 10.0 1.6 70.3 65.3 4.4 6.2 7.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 40 60 100 9.7 10.3 10.1 1.7 72.6 66.3 6.9 8.5 10.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 31 69 100 4.8 5.0 8.2 1.5 68.6 67.0 2.5 3.9 4.8 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 7.2 7.4 8.3 1.5 68.5 65.5 4.1 5.0 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 6.6 6.6 6.9 1.8 71.3 70.0 2.9 4.6 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 6.7 7.5 10.0 1.6 69.3 64.9 4.4 6.3 7.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 2.6 2.9 7.0 1.4 70.4 65.3 -0.6 1.7 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 8.0 8.3 8.9 1.5 68.7 65.3 5.3 6.7 8.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 35 65 100 7.7 8.0 7.5 1.4 67.9 64.2 4.8 6.3 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 7.3 7.4 8.0 1.5 70.9 66.4 4.4 6.0 6.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 6.2 6.5 7.7 1.5 73.1 67.0 3.4 4.5 6.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 6.8 7.2 7.3 1.6 72.4 66.9 3.4 4.9 6.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 7.1 8.1 8.6 1.3 65.0 63.3 4.9 6.6 8.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 29 71 100 7.6 7.8 8.8 1.8 74.5 70.1 4.0 6.4 7.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 35 65 100 8.1 8.2 7.6 1.6 71.1 67.6 5.2 6.5 8.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 6.7 7.9 9.5 1.3 65.6 63.0 4.5 6.3 7.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 33 67 100 7.0 6.3 6.9 1.2 64.3 62.3 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 38 62 100 7.9 8.1 10.0 1.6 71.6 65.9 4.4 6.8 7.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 34 66 100 3.4 2.7 5.7 1.1 61.7 61.9 -0.2 1.5 3.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 7.9 7.8 9.7 1.6 69.1 65.8 4.9 6.5 7.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 6.6 6.8 9.5 1.3 67.1 63.0 4.1 5.8 6.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 37 63 100 7.6 7.8 9.8 1.6 72.8 66.4 4.1 6.3 7.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 7.1 7.0 8.4 1.3 67.7 64.0 4.6 6.1 6.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 34 66 100 8.0 8.3 9.0 1.7 69.2 66.3 5.0 6.4 8.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 6.8 6.4 7.4 1.4 67.8 65.9 4.1 5.2 6.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 8.1 8.3 9.8 1.7 71.7 66.1 4.7 6.9 7.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 6.2 6.2 8.4 1.6 71.4 68.6 2.6 5.1 6.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 36 64 100 6.0 5.6 6.4 1.1 62.5 61.7 2.8 5.1 5.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 40 60 100 8.0 8.2 10.2 1.7 72.6 66.1 5.2 7.0 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------