***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 08.10.2012.-14.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 9999.0 0.0 11.2 0.9 66.9 60.4 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 37 63 100 8.9 8.9 10.7 0.8 67.3 60.0 7.2 7.6 8.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 33 67 100 11.0 10.9 11.0 1.1 70.0 62.6 9.2 10.3 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 6.4 6.4 9.1 1.0 69.1 63.2 5.0 5.5 6.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 36 64 100 8.3 8.5 9.1 1.0 68.5 62.2 6.4 7.3 8.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 33 67 100 7.8 7.5 7.6 1.1 67.5 64.3 5.4 6.6 7.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 9.0 9.1 10.7 0.8 67.2 59.2 7.2 7.8 9.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 35 65 100 4.0 3.2 7.7 0.9 69.1 62.3 1.7 2.6 3.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 9.0 9.1 9.6 1.0 68.4 62.4 7.3 8.5 9.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 36 64 100 8.6 8.7 8.2 0.9 68.4 61.3 7.5 8.0 8.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 37 63 100 8.5 8.6 8.8 1.0 70.1 63.4 6.5 7.6 8.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 35 65 100 7.6 7.5 8.5 1.1 69.4 63.5 5.7 6.7 7.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 38 62 100 8.3 8.0 7.9 1.0 65.1 61.8 5.7 7.4 8.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 9.6 9.3 9.5 0.9 69.0 61.6 7.6 8.5 9.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 9.3 9.6 9.8 1.3 72.1 66.6 7.5 8.2 9.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 9.4 9.1 8.4 1.0 68.6 63.3 7.6 8.2 9.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 8.3 9.2 10.2 0.6 64.3 57.1 7.4 7.7 9.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 8.1 8.0 7.6 0.8 65.1 60.0 6.4 6.9 8.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 35 65 100 8.9 9.1 10.8 1.0 68.5 61.5 7.1 7.8 8.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 4.6 4.2 6.2 0.7 63.1 59.3 2.0 3.0 4.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 8.7 8.6 10.5 1.0 69.1 61.7 6.2 7.5 8.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 6.3 8.0 10.2 0.6 64.3 57.8 6.4 7.1 8.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 8.5 8.6 10.8 1.1 71.1 63.2 7.1 7.8 8.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 35 65 100 8.5 9.0 9.3 1.0 70.6 62.2 6.8 7.3 8.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 35 65 100 9.2 9.2 9.8 1.0 67.7 61.8 6.9 7.8 9.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 8.5 8.0 8.0 0.7 60.5 59.6 6.3 7.4 8.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 9.8 9.3 10.4 0.9 65.9 60.5 6.8 7.6 9.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 8.1 8.2 9.4 1.1 70.2 64.7 5.6 6.7 7.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 6.9 6.6 7.1 0.8 65.5 60.5 5.5 6.1 6.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 35 65 100 9.3 9.1 11.0 0.9 68.2 60.9 7.3 7.7 9.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------