***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.09.2012. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 01.10.2012.-07.10.2012. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 0 100 100 9999.0 0.0 14.8 3.6 97.1 93.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 13 87 100 11.5 13.0 13.6 2.7 92.9 87.5 8.6 10.1 10.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 0 100 100 13.5 15.4 14.6 3.6 98.6 94.9 10.9 11.7 12.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 0 100 100 9.2 11.9 12.8 3.7 99.6 95.7 5.8 6.9 8.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 0 100 100 11.0 14.5 13.2 3.8 99.8 96.7 7.6 8.8 10.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 0 100 100 10.0 12.8 11.6 4.3 98.6 98.0 6.4 8.2 9.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 8 92 100 11.1 13.0 13.8 2.9 92.5 87.8 8.9 9.7 10.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 0 100 100 5.6 8.2 11.4 3.8 99.8 97.5 2.5 4.1 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 0 100 100 11.9 13.9 13.7 4.0 100.0 98.5 9.1 10.2 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 0 100 100 11.1 13.7 12.2 3.9 100.0 97.7 8.0 9.0 10.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 0 100 100 10.7 14.7 12.7 3.9 100.0 97.9 7.6 8.9 10.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 0 100 100 9.2 13.8 12.2 4.0 99.9 98.3 6.7 8.1 9.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 0 100 100 10.2 13.3 12.3 4.3 99.6 98.4 7.3 8.8 9.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 1 99 100 11.5 13.1 13.2 3.5 98.7 94.8 8.8 10.0 10.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 0 100 100 11.9 13.8 14.3 4.2 99.9 98.2 9.1 10.0 11.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 0 100 100 11.6 14.8 12.6 4.1 99.9 98.5 8.4 10.1 11.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 16 84 100 10.9 12.1 12.9 2.4 88.7 84.3 8.7 9.8 10.5 30 Palic 37000G16 0 0 100 100 10.4 11.7 11.2 3.6 99.0 96.3 7.3 8.4 9.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 8 92 100 11.3 12.9 13.9 3.0 95.4 90.5 8.5 9.7 10.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 0 100 100 6.2 9.1 9.2 3.5 97.6 95.6 3.1 5.2 6.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 0 100 100 11.2 13.7 14.5 3.8 99.4 96.4 8.4 9.6 10.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 14 86 100 10.2 11.6 13.1 2.4 88.7 84.8 8.0 9.1 9.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 0 100 100 11.0 14.5 14.3 3.6 100.0 96.1 8.2 9.2 10.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 0 100 100 10.4 12.6 13.0 3.6 100.0 96.4 8.0 9.0 10.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 0 100 100 11.8 15.5 14.0 3.7 98.6 95.4 8.8 10.2 10.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 2 98 100 10.4 12.6 11.9 4.0 98.9 96.3 6.8 9.0 9.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 0 100 100 12.4 15.3 14.2 3.6 97.4 93.5 8.7 10.6 11.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 0 100 100 10.1 12.8 13.4 4.0 99.9 97.1 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 0 100 100 9.4 10.9 10.4 3.6 98.2 96.2 6.6 7.5 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 5 95 100 11.6 13.9 14.2 3.1 95.1 90.4 8.9 10.3 10.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------