***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 40.9 58.6 56.1 117.3 68.6 61.7 14.2 33.3 48.7 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 51.5 55.9 57.7 128.3 72.0 65.4 14.1 34.9 50.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 83 17 100 43.9 75.3 56.9 119.8 70.1 63.5 20.0 35.3 58.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 67.2 76.1 56.6 105.4 61.3 53.9 30.8 59.7 81.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 48.4 51.5 55.4 113.3 63.2 58.2 30.5 40.7 55.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 50.4 51.2 52.7 104.8 59.3 53.3 25.3 44.9 56.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 38 62 100 49.5 51.1 56.3 125.6 72.4 63.9 17.0 26.7 47.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 61.5 67.6 58.6 108.6 61.5 56.2 44.2 53.8 76.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 44.8 50.9 57.3 115.3 65.8 59.7 27.6 37.8 51.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 52.7 59.4 60.6 112.9 64.3 58.7 33.2 43.7 60.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 47.4 56.1 53.1 110.3 60.5 56.6 28.6 42.7 59.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 44.5 47.1 52.0 108.6 60.2 55.7 27.0 41.1 51.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 46.1 55.8 55.0 111.7 62.2 56.7 26.4 39.0 59.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 34 66 100 93.5 104.8 74.8 135.5 75.9 70.1 39.6 59.9 85.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 42.6 49.3 52.6 96.4 54.5 50.2 17.4 35.9 61.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 41.2 45.0 53.2 111.3 62.5 56.6 22.9 34.8 49.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 43.0 46.5 59.1 132.6 74.0 66.2 16.8 26.9 39.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 83 17 100 54.4 64.3 66.2 116.8 68.3 61.6 35.8 48.3 63.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 70.2 72.5 58.8 129.6 72.3 66.4 18.1 39.2 62.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 55.7 63.2 74.4 112.5 63.5 58.1 38.2 48.5 65.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 44.8 56.4 55.5 115.3 67.3 60.7 26.8 37.8 55.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 26 74 100 53.4 61.0 66.0 144.1 78.5 71.2 22.2 32.3 49.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 33 67 100 69.9 76.2 61.4 132.0 73.2 68.0 25.7 40.8 67.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 44 56 100 79.6 82.0 65.0 123.2 70.9 64.9 27.5 45.2 60.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 42.0 54.8 58.5 113.3 66.6 58.9 19.9 33.9 53.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 47.9 46.4 53.8 106.9 58.8 54.2 30.1 42.2 52.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 42 58 100 55.1 65.2 58.4 118.0 68.9 61.1 16.0 30.8 52.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 44.0 48.9 52.0 101.4 56.8 52.2 19.7 38.5 54.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 72.6 82.2 69.5 117.6 68.9 62.0 49.0 65.1 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 54.7 60.5 56.7 123.4 71.1 63.8 17.6 31.3 58.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------