***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 2.0 5.6 11.3 76.3 54.0 43.8 2.5 4.9 12.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 59 41 0 100 2.0 6.5 11.3 85.5 56.4 44.4 0.5 4.9 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 61 39 0 100 2.7 6.7 10.9 75.1 53.8 42.8 2.8 6.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.5 12.5 76.7 52.4 43.5 2.1 8.0 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 3.6 7.5 11.0 74.0 50.0 41.3 3.2 7.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 1.9 4.5 12.0 79.6 54.2 43.2 1.2 4.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 1.7 5.9 11.8 89.8 60.0 44.7 1.8 4.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.6 9.8 12.0 77.8 49.6 41.4 4.4 9.9 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 63 37 0 100 3.1 7.4 10.8 72.3 51.3 40.1 3.4 7.3 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 62 38 0 100 3.9 7.8 11.6 74.2 48.9 40.6 3.6 8.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.8 6.2 10.8 77.1 50.4 41.7 2.3 5.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 2.5 6.1 10.9 77.8 50.8 41.6 2.1 6.1 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 58 42 0 100 3.0 7.4 11.8 78.2 53.0 42.6 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 64 36 0 100 4.8 10.6 12.3 71.9 48.0 41.0 5.7 10.9 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 60 40 0 100 2.1 8.2 13.9 80.5 57.8 44.3 1.5 4.7 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 58 42 0 100 1.9 5.1 11.3 77.9 52.5 42.5 3.0 4.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.0 5.1 11.7 90.2 59.5 44.9 1.1 2.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 3.1 6.6 12.1 72.4 49.3 40.6 3.3 6.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 2.3 8.1 10.9 80.5 53.6 43.2 2.0 5.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 3.3 7.7 15.5 77.1 49.2 41.2 4.1 7.9 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 62 38 0 100 2.6 6.9 10.4 71.5 53.5 41.0 2.7 5.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 2.5 11.0 12.4 89.5 56.1 44.0 0.8 5.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 61 39 0 100 3.7 9.5 10.7 75.4 51.4 42.6 3.5 9.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 60 40 0 100 3.5 8.4 11.5 71.8 51.2 40.9 5.0 8.0 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 1.6 3.5 11.5 72.5 50.8 41.9 1.4 3.5 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 58 42 0 100 3.7 8.7 12.1 75.7 51.1 42.5 2.7 8.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 1.2 3.4 11.6 76.3 52.5 43.5 1.0 2.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 59 41 0 100 3.0 8.4 12.1 76.9 54.7 43.0 1.7 7.3 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 4.3 8.4 12.9 74.1 48.0 41.3 5.8 8.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 1.9 8.0 11.6 84.2 57.5 44.7 1.2 5.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------