***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 6.2 18.6 14.5 136.0 73.7 57.8 0.3 1.4 6.6 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 8.5 18.2 14.3 142.6 76.4 61.7 1.4 5.8 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 12.5 25.5 15.6 141.1 75.7 58.0 0.6 8.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 14.0 18.9 16.0 136.5 73.6 58.5 3.7 10.4 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 8.5 23.7 16.6 150.6 77.5 60.1 1.5 4.3 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 13.3 24.6 17.1 133.3 72.6 57.5 3.1 8.9 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 81 19 100 8.6 17.9 13.6 140.1 75.0 60.0 0.6 6.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 17.0 28.3 17.5 141.3 74.1 58.6 7.9 13.4 22.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 9.9 20.9 17.2 153.9 78.3 60.6 1.5 6.8 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 12.1 22.7 17.9 149.3 76.4 60.4 1.6 9.2 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 8.2 21.5 16.5 148.8 76.5 61.3 0.9 4.6 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.1 22.0 16.5 147.2 76.2 59.8 1.6 9.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 11.5 27.6 17.0 151.2 76.9 59.1 3.8 5.8 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 13.0 37.5 20.5 159.5 79.3 61.0 1.2 7.0 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 6.9 14.2 14.1 123.7 71.4 57.0 1.3 3.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 11.0 27.7 16.5 148.0 75.8 60.3 0.9 6.0 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 6.5 16.5 13.8 139.5 74.1 61.3 0.4 3.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 15.8 30.8 19.3 151.4 76.2 58.5 2.1 11.3 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 8.5 21.7 14.7 143.3 76.5 60.4 0.9 4.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 15.9 28.1 23.3 152.1 75.4 59.8 4.1 12.0 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 12.2 22.3 15.9 145.6 76.7 58.6 4.0 8.9 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 37 63 100 15.5 20.6 15.3 153.1 77.9 63.8 0.1 6.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 2.0 19.8 15.8 147.1 76.6 59.0 0.5 4.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 8.8 25.9 18.5 150.7 77.1 59.2 0.9 3.9 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.0 19.6 15.3 129.7 72.7 55.5 2.0 8.1 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 13.9 23.6 17.5 142.6 73.3 57.6 5.6 10.4 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 9.4 22.2 15.2 134.0 73.1 57.4 0.6 3.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 6.3 16.0 15.0 132.2 72.9 58.3 0.8 2.8 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 22.0 36.5 21.0 154.1 76.8 59.5 4.1 17.5 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 80 20 100 8.2 16.4 14.4 140.4 76.4 60.5 0.8 5.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------