***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 30 70 100 10.2 14.0 19.1 166.5 79.0 73.0 0.7 3.9 8.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 27 73 100 11.0 15.0 20.3 180.0 81.0 74.5 0.5 1.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 23 77 100 14.3 17.0 18.6 166.0 79.0 74.3 2.7 5.6 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 83 17 100 17.9 29.8 16.7 122.5 72.1 61.3 6.4 14.6 22.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 44 56 100 18.0 20.9 17.3 144.8 75.4 67.3 4.1 11.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 11.7 17.5 14.5 130.9 69.8 60.2 1.3 7.2 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 35 65 100 13.8 19.8 19.3 170.3 78.7 71.7 0.6 4.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 21.0 23.4 18.8 137.7 73.2 65.3 3.9 14.1 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 40 60 100 13.6 16.6 18.2 151.5 76.5 69.5 3.9 8.4 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 16.4 18.9 19.9 147.0 75.8 68.9 6.6 11.4 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 11.7 17.8 16.2 133.4 73.9 65.7 2.4 10.3 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 16.1 16.5 15.7 134.9 73.4 64.1 1.3 7.1 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 8.4 20.2 16.2 141.7 72.2 65.4 2.3 5.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 14 86 100 24.4 33.9 27.2 213.7 86.3 80.1 5.6 11.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 83 17 100 7.6 20.4 13.4 101.8 70.5 57.0 1.4 4.7 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 6.5 18.2 15.8 140.5 73.3 64.8 0.6 3.0 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 26 74 100 11.7 19.1 21.3 190.9 83.6 75.3 0.3 3.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 39 61 100 16.5 21.6 22.0 157.7 78.8 71.9 4.4 9.8 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 22 78 100 13.6 17.9 21.3 189.6 81.7 76.4 1.8 4.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 44 56 100 16.9 17.7 20.5 138.5 74.4 66.5 5.0 13.1 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 32 68 100 17.2 21.3 18.0 155.2 78.4 71.5 2.7 8.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 18 82 100 11.3 24.8 26.0 230.8 87.8 80.9 0.7 4.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 17 83 100 19.2 23.3 22.6 200.0 82.3 77.4 1.8 7.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 24 76 100 20.0 22.8 22.0 178.1 83.0 76.2 4.6 12.6 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 17.7 26.1 19.7 165.0 79.5 71.1 2.4 5.0 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 8.0 16.5 14.0 137.6 71.4 60.7 1.1 2.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 34 66 100 12.1 15.9 19.9 170.5 79.2 72.1 1.0 5.1 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 84 16 100 12.7 22.5 14.6 114.6 71.2 59.9 3.6 10.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 23.4 30.5 21.9 154.6 76.7 71.1 5.5 11.5 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 11.7 14.3 19.2 170.2 78.3 73.0 0.9 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------