***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 78 22 100 18.7 18.1 18.0 -0.1 45.5 48.0 17.6 18.3 19.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 17.6 18.1 17.6 -0.6 36.6 41.4 18.0 18.6 19.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 19.3 18.5 18.2 -0.3 41.6 45.6 18.4 19.0 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 11.9 12.0 15.9 0.5 59.9 55.8 11.1 11.6 12.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.8 16.8 -0.1 47.8 47.9 18.4 18.8 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 18.6 18.5 15.8 0.4 56.2 53.9 17.3 18.2 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 17.4 17.8 17.5 -0.6 37.2 41.2 17.7 18.3 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 8.7 9.2 15.8 0.0 48.3 49.2 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 19.3 18.9 17.5 -0.1 48.6 48.7 18.5 18.9 19.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 18.9 18.4 16.5 0.1 50.5 50.6 17.7 18.4 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 19.5 18.7 17.1 -0.2 45.8 47.0 18.3 19.1 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 17.6 18.4 16.6 -0.2 46.5 47.2 17.7 18.5 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 18.1 19.0 16.6 -0.3 45.8 46.4 18.5 19.3 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 19.8 19.3 17.2 -0.3 44.1 46.3 18.7 19.5 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 82 18 100 18.2 18.6 17.4 0.7 62.9 58.5 17.5 18.1 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 20.1 19.6 16.7 -0.1 49.1 48.1 19.0 19.6 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 17.1 17.7 17.1 -0.8 35.4 39.5 17.6 18.1 18.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 17.2 18.0 16.1 0.0 49.0 50.2 17.1 18.0 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 17.6 18.1 17.8 -0.6 37.4 41.7 18.1 18.5 19.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 14.2 15.1 14.1 -0.1 48.1 47.8 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 19.2 18.6 17.9 -0.1 46.8 47.9 18.2 18.7 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 17.7 18.4 17.2 -0.7 36.1 39.8 18.2 18.7 19.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 18.0 18.6 18.0 -0.6 38.5 41.6 18.4 19.1 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 19.6 18.9 17.4 -0.1 47.0 48.6 18.4 19.2 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 18.3 18.1 16.8 0.0 50.3 50.0 17.7 18.1 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 18.1 18.8 16.0 -0.2 46.7 46.6 17.9 18.9 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 19.0 18.6 17.5 -0.1 47.1 48.7 18.0 18.7 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 18.4 18.8 16.7 0.6 61.2 57.0 17.6 18.1 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 13.4 14.5 15.4 -0.1 47.3 48.1 13.2 14.5 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 17.6 18.1 17.8 -0.5 38.4 43.1 17.8 18.6 19.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------