***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.5 16.2 0.6 56.5 57.2 14.3 14.9 17.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.4 16.0 0.3 53.6 54.4 14.0 15.3 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 17.0 17.0 16.5 0.5 57.1 56.3 15.0 16.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 9.8 9.5 13.9 0.7 60.0 58.0 6.5 8.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.8 14.8 0.5 57.4 56.5 14.6 16.2 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.8 13.8 0.7 60.2 57.8 13.8 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 16.0 15.9 15.9 0.4 53.4 54.6 13.6 15.3 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.3 14.2 0.7 56.8 57.5 6.1 7.6 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.2 15.5 0.6 57.3 57.2 14.7 16.7 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.7 14.8 0.8 57.6 58.0 13.9 16.2 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.1 15.1 0.5 56.5 56.5 14.4 16.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 17.4 17.3 14.9 0.6 56.5 56.9 14.0 16.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 17.7 18.1 14.5 0.5 57.3 56.8 14.6 16.9 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.0 15.5 0.5 54.6 55.5 14.8 16.7 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.2 15.2 14.6 0.8 60.8 59.2 13.5 14.7 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 18.2 18.3 14.8 0.6 57.4 57.1 15.1 17.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 15.8 15.4 15.6 0.3 51.9 53.7 13.1 15.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 17.0 16.1 14.8 0.9 57.3 58.5 12.9 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 16.3 16.0 16.2 0.3 54.2 54.4 14.2 15.5 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 13.6 13.8 12.7 0.8 57.3 58.6 11.0 13.0 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.2 17.0 16.0 0.6 57.0 57.4 14.4 16.4 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.5 15.6 0.2 50.3 53.4 14.2 15.5 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 13.6 16.5 16.4 0.3 54.0 54.3 14.4 15.9 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 17.9 17.5 15.7 0.7 57.5 57.2 14.4 17.2 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.5 14.8 0.7 58.2 58.0 13.9 15.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 15.0 17.1 14.3 0.5 56.0 57.2 14.5 16.7 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.3 16.9 15.7 0.7 57.6 57.8 14.4 15.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.1 15.1 14.3 0.7 60.0 58.5 13.3 14.6 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 13.1 12.8 14.0 0.8 56.2 58.2 10.3 12.5 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.9 16.1 0.4 54.7 55.2 13.8 15.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------