***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 18.4 17.7 17.6 -0.1 49.8 49.3 15.3 17.7 19.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 15.4 17.7 17.3 -0.4 44.5 45.9 16.3 17.8 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 19.0 17.9 17.9 -0.2 47.7 48.5 17.3 18.6 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.3 11.5 15.9 0.7 58.0 55.3 9.2 10.6 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 19.0 18.6 16.6 0.2 51.0 51.2 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 18.0 17.6 15.7 0.7 55.9 55.9 15.4 17.2 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 14.9 17.4 17.3 -0.4 45.2 46.2 15.9 17.5 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 9.2 8.3 15.9 0.3 48.8 51.8 7.4 8.3 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 15.7 18.6 17.0 0.2 50.0 50.9 16.8 18.6 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 51 49 0 100 15.3 18.1 16.4 0.3 49.2 52.1 16.3 18.1 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 75 25 100 19.0 18.2 16.8 0.2 49.4 50.7 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 18.6 18.0 16.7 0.2 48.4 51.0 15.8 18.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 15.8 18.4 16.2 0.2 50.9 51.6 16.4 18.4 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 16.1 18.9 16.8 -0.3 43.1 48.1 17.5 19.7 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 80 20 100 17.2 17.5 16.7 1.0 61.7 58.1 15.1 16.7 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 19.4 18.8 16.6 0.3 51.9 52.2 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 17.9 17.1 16.9 -0.5 43.8 45.1 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 14.8 17.8 16.1 0.2 48.8 51.4 15.8 17.9 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 15.4 17.9 17.5 -0.4 45.0 46.1 16.1 18.1 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 11.7 14.4 14.2 0.2 48.4 51.5 13.0 14.5 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 18.8 18.5 17.5 0.1 50.8 50.4 16.8 18.3 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 52 48 0 100 15.7 18.3 16.9 -0.5 43.2 45.1 16.4 18.4 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 18.9 18.0 17.7 -0.5 44.2 46.0 16.4 18.5 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 15.6 18.8 17.0 0.0 47.3 50.1 17.2 18.9 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 17.8 17.4 16.3 0.3 53.2 52.5 15.7 17.2 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 15.2 17.2 16.1 0.3 49.9 51.6 16.4 17.2 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 18.5 18.0 17.1 0.1 50.6 50.7 16.7 17.9 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 17.5 17.7 16.3 0.8 59.1 56.6 15.2 16.8 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 10.8 14.0 15.4 0.1 47.5 50.4 12.5 14.2 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 15.1 17.5 17.4 -0.3 45.8 47.1 16.0 17.6 19.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------