***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2019.-13.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 18.3 19.7 18.4 -0.3 47.5 47.7 19.0 20.1 21.5 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 18.4 19.8 18.0 -0.8 41.8 43.9 19.0 20.7 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 18.6 19.3 18.5 -0.5 44.2 46.0 19.1 20.1 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 11.4 13.9 16.1 0.3 59.0 52.9 10.9 13.0 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 18.8 20.1 17.1 -0.3 45.8 47.5 19.1 20.2 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 20.8 20.4 16.0 0.1 51.3 51.9 18.2 20.4 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 61 39 0 100 17.9 19.4 17.9 -0.8 41.6 43.6 19.0 20.1 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 9.0 10.4 15.9 -0.3 45.4 48.0 9.1 11.0 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 19.0 20.3 17.8 -0.3 47.1 47.7 19.1 20.4 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 19.0 20.8 16.7 -0.2 47.3 48.8 19.0 20.8 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 53 47 0 100 19.0 20.2 17.4 -0.5 44.3 46.5 19.7 20.5 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 19.0 20.8 16.7 -0.5 44.0 46.4 18.6 21.0 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 51 49 0 100 19.5 20.5 16.8 -0.7 42.5 45.5 19.8 20.7 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 19.1 20.4 17.5 -0.6 43.8 46.2 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 20.4 20.4 18.0 0.5 61.1 54.4 17.7 19.7 21.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 20.1 20.8 16.9 -0.5 43.3 46.8 20.5 21.4 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 17.6 18.9 17.5 -0.9 42.2 42.7 18.8 19.5 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 52 48 0 100 18.4 19.9 16.2 -0.3 45.2 48.4 18.2 20.0 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 18.4 19.5 18.2 -0.8 41.8 43.9 18.6 20.7 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 14.7 15.8 14.2 -0.5 41.1 46.7 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 18.7 19.9 18.3 -0.4 46.3 47.2 18.9 20.1 21.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 58 42 0 100 18.5 19.6 17.6 -0.9 40.6 42.4 19.0 20.6 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 18.9 20.3 18.3 -0.9 41.7 43.6 18.8 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 18.9 19.9 17.7 -0.4 45.5 47.8 19.3 20.3 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 18.4 19.5 17.2 -0.2 50.2 48.5 18.8 19.5 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 19.7 20.4 16.2 -0.6 43.7 47.1 19.1 21.4 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 18.4 19.9 17.8 -0.3 48.6 47.9 18.8 20.0 21.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 18.1 21.3 17.0 0.4 59.4 53.4 17.4 20.0 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 13.7 15.2 15.4 -0.5 41.5 46.9 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 18.4 19.3 18.2 -0.7 43.0 44.7 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------