***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 22.0 21.2 19.9 -0.8 45.2 43.5 20.4 21.6 22.2 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 20.4 20.7 19.2 -1.6 35.1 34.2 20.6 21.8 22.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.5 19.9 -1.1 40.0 40.2 21.3 21.8 23.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 92 8 100 14.7 14.9 17.7 0.3 54.5 53.8 13.0 14.4 16.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 22.6 21.8 18.6 -0.8 44.8 43.5 20.7 22.1 23.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 21.6 21.2 17.6 -0.1 50.4 49.5 19.7 21.1 22.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 20.3 20.4 18.9 -1.7 33.7 33.1 20.4 21.7 22.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 11.9 10.9 17.2 -0.7 42.4 43.4 10.5 11.3 12.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 22.5 21.9 19.5 -0.7 44.8 43.9 21.0 22.0 23.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 22.5 21.9 18.1 -0.5 44.5 45.2 20.4 22.2 23.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 22.8 22.2 19.1 -0.9 41.8 42.0 20.4 22.5 23.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 22.3 20.9 18.0 -0.9 41.6 42.0 19.9 21.9 22.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 23.1 21.6 18.7 -1.2 40.0 39.6 20.8 22.4 23.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 21.0 21.8 19.1 -1.0 40.0 41.1 21.3 22.5 23.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 91 9 100 21.6 22.4 20.4 0.4 55.7 55.2 19.8 21.4 23.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 23.3 22.5 18.7 -0.9 42.7 42.0 21.2 22.7 23.6 30 Nis 06700G01 61 39 0 100 20.1 20.2 18.4 -1.8 33.9 31.8 20.1 21.2 21.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 19.6 21.4 17.3 -0.7 42.5 43.6 20.4 21.6 22.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 20.1 20.9 19.4 -1.6 35.4 34.9 20.9 21.7 22.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 60 40 0 100 16.4 16.7 15.4 -1.0 37.2 40.1 16.5 17.9 18.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 22.6 21.6 20.0 -0.8 43.3 42.8 20.9 22.2 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 62 38 0 100 20.5 21.0 18.6 -1.7 33.7 32.8 20.9 21.8 22.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 20.3 21.1 19.5 -1.5 36.0 35.5 20.8 21.7 22.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 51 49 0 100 20.7 21.6 19.2 -0.8 41.9 42.6 20.9 22.3 23.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 21.8 21.3 18.9 -0.7 47.7 44.9 20.0 21.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 22.8 21.1 17.5 -1.0 40.1 41.1 20.2 22.2 22.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 22.2 21.5 19.3 -0.8 44.2 42.5 20.3 21.9 22.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 90 10 100 21.9 21.8 19.0 0.4 54.7 54.1 19.5 21.7 23.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 15.5 16.4 16.7 -0.9 39.6 41.5 16.0 17.3 17.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 20.3 21.2 19.4 -1.4 36.4 36.2 20.9 21.9 22.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------