***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-27.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 7.8 7.6 9.8 0.0 49.6 49.3 6.5 7.6 8.1 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 80 20 100 7.6 7.2 9.3 0.0 49.2 49.5 6.5 7.3 8.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 9.8 9.5 9.8 0.0 48.2 49.2 8.9 9.6 10.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 4.7 4.7 7.4 0.3 58.2 54.3 3.9 4.4 5.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 7.4 7.2 7.8 0.1 52.0 51.2 5.9 7.2 7.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 77 23 100 6.5 6.4 6.0 0.3 58.2 54.2 5.7 6.3 6.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 7.6 7.4 9.4 0.0 49.3 49.4 6.4 7.4 8.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 2.3 2.0 5.9 0.1 52.2 50.9 1.6 2.0 2.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 8.1 8.0 7.9 0.1 52.4 51.0 6.9 7.9 8.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 78 22 100 7.7 7.6 6.6 0.1 52.9 51.4 6.6 7.4 8.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 7.5 7.2 7.3 0.1 50.6 50.3 6.2 7.2 7.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 6.4 6.3 6.6 0.1 53.1 51.5 5.7 6.3 6.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 6.9 6.9 6.5 0.3 55.8 54.4 6.1 6.6 7.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 8.1 8.0 7.9 0.2 52.9 52.3 7.1 8.0 8.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 8.0 8.2 8.8 0.4 60.5 57.3 7.1 7.9 8.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 8.2 8.4 6.9 0.2 54.7 52.9 7.2 8.0 8.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 7.9 7.8 9.1 0.0 50.1 49.7 6.4 7.8 8.3 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.5 6.0 0.2 53.4 52.5 5.8 6.4 7.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 80 20 100 7.8 7.5 9.4 0.0 47.2 48.7 6.4 7.6 8.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 3.4 3.2 4.6 0.2 51.2 51.8 2.5 3.2 3.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 7.5 7.2 9.2 0.1 51.6 51.1 6.5 7.2 8.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 7.0 6.6 9.1 0.0 47.3 48.9 5.7 6.9 7.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 7.5 7.0 9.3 -0.1 44.7 47.1 6.3 7.3 7.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 7.3 7.2 7.8 0.2 53.8 52.8 6.5 7.2 7.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 8.0 7.7 8.8 0.0 50.1 49.7 6.8 7.7 8.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 7.0 7.3 6.2 0.3 57.6 54.8 6.5 6.8 7.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.7 9.4 0.1 52.4 50.8 6.9 7.7 8.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 6.5 6.6 7.7 0.4 61.0 57.0 5.6 6.4 6.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 5.7 5.4 5.5 0.1 50.6 50.5 4.7 5.3 6.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 8.0 7.6 9.6 0.0 48.0 48.8 6.5 7.7 8.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------