***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2019.-20.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 4.0 5.7 9.3 0.1 49.1 51.2 4.2 5.8 7.4 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 4.0 6.4 8.8 0.0 49.6 50.1 4.1 6.5 7.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 7.0 9.1 9.3 0.1 49.4 51.6 6.8 9.1 9.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 4.6 4.4 6.8 0.3 51.6 54.4 2.2 4.3 5.0 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 6.2 5.4 7.0 0.2 51.4 53.8 3.4 5.4 7.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 2.9 5.0 5.6 0.5 55.0 55.6 2.6 4.5 5.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 4.3 5.9 8.9 0.0 49.3 50.8 4.0 6.0 7.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 75 25 100 1.9 2.3 5.6 0.4 54.8 55.0 -0.8 1.4 2.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.5 7.4 0.3 53.0 54.2 4.9 6.5 8.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.4 6.4 6.1 0.4 53.3 54.7 4.7 6.1 7.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 3.8 5.7 6.6 0.3 52.7 54.3 4.2 5.5 7.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 4.9 5.2 6.1 0.4 56.1 56.0 3.3 4.2 5.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 5.3 5.7 5.8 0.5 55.8 56.6 3.0 4.7 6.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 7.3 7.0 7.4 0.3 52.0 53.8 4.4 6.7 8.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 6.8 7.1 7.9 0.5 54.3 56.4 4.6 6.3 7.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 6.8 6.4 6.1 0.4 53.5 55.1 5.3 6.1 7.9 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.5 6.2 8.5 -0.1 49.5 49.5 4.2 6.2 7.5 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.7 5.7 5.5 0.4 54.6 55.5 3.3 5.5 6.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 4.6 6.8 8.9 0.0 49.0 50.1 4.0 6.9 7.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 2.1 1.6 4.2 0.5 53.7 55.7 -0.3 1.3 3.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 51 49 0 100 4.0 5.9 8.6 0.1 48.4 52.5 4.7 5.9 7.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 3.8 5.6 8.4 -0.2 47.3 48.9 3.5 5.8 6.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 4.3 6.3 8.8 0.0 49.0 50.8 3.9 6.4 7.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 6.2 6.3 7.1 0.4 54.6 54.9 4.2 5.7 6.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.5 6.2 8.2 0.1 48.9 52.0 4.7 6.4 7.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 5.7 5.9 5.7 0.6 56.9 57.9 4.1 5.1 6.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 4.5 6.5 8.9 0.2 50.9 52.5 4.4 6.4 7.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.1 4.9 6.9 0.4 53.2 55.5 2.4 4.5 6.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 5.4 5.3 5.2 0.4 53.4 54.9 2.4 5.0 5.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 59 41 0 100 4.4 7.1 9.1 0.0 49.1 50.7 4.5 7.1 7.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------