***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2019. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2019.-06.10.2019. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 86 14 100 9.8 9.3 11.5 -0.1 45.5 48.5 8.2 9.5 10.8 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 9.9 9.6 11.1 0.0 49.0 49.9 8.5 9.6 11.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 86 14 100 11.8 11.5 11.7 0.0 48.9 50.4 10.5 11.6 13.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 7.3 7.7 9.5 0.4 58.6 57.3 6.0 7.1 8.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 86 14 100 9.0 8.8 10.1 0.1 51.5 51.4 7.3 8.7 9.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 85 15 100 8.5 8.7 7.9 0.5 56.1 56.2 6.2 8.2 9.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 85 15 100 9.9 9.4 11.0 -0.1 47.4 48.2 8.6 9.5 11.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 84 16 100 4.0 3.5 7.5 0.0 46.7 48.9 2.9 3.7 5.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 87 13 100 10.5 10.2 9.8 0.0 49.4 50.0 9.0 10.3 11.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 84 16 100 9.7 9.4 8.3 0.0 48.0 49.5 8.0 9.4 10.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 84 16 100 9.4 9.1 9.4 -0.1 48.5 48.9 7.5 9.2 10.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 84 16 100 8.0 7.6 8.5 0.0 48.0 50.1 6.4 7.7 8.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 8.7 9.5 8.8 0.4 55.6 55.7 7.1 8.4 9.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 87 13 100 10.1 10.1 9.9 0.4 55.0 55.3 9.1 9.8 11.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 86 14 100 10.4 11.0 11.4 0.6 61.9 61.1 8.7 10.1 11.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 87 13 100 10.3 10.3 9.2 0.3 53.6 54.6 8.3 10.1 11.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 88 12 100 9.8 9.7 10.8 0.1 51.0 50.1 8.5 9.6 11.0 30 Palic 37000G16 0 88 12 100 8.5 8.3 7.9 0.1 50.0 51.6 7.4 8.3 9.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 86 14 100 9.7 9.3 11.1 0.0 48.8 49.4 8.4 9.3 10.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 85 15 100 5.1 4.6 6.2 -0.1 45.8 48.2 3.3 4.8 5.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 88 12 100 10.0 9.8 11.1 0.1 52.1 52.2 7.9 9.8 10.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 89 11 100 9.1 8.9 11.2 0.2 51.5 51.6 7.7 8.8 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 86 14 100 9.4 8.9 11.0 -0.2 48.2 47.5 8.4 9.2 10.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 88 12 100 9.5 9.6 9.9 0.3 53.9 54.4 8.0 9.4 10.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 84 16 100 10.3 10.0 10.8 -0.2 46.3 47.8 8.2 10.0 11.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 9.4 9.4 8.3 0.4 56.7 55.6 7.0 9.3 9.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 85 15 100 10.4 10.0 11.1 -0.1 46.9 49.1 8.9 10.1 11.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 87 13 100 9.0 9.3 10.1 0.7 62.3 61.2 6.9 8.8 9.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 7.6 7.0 6.9 -0.1 44.9 47.6 6.7 7.3 8.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 86 14 100 10.3 9.9 11.3 -0.1 47.1 48.4 8.9 10.0 11.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------