***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 9999.0 0.0 47.5 112.7 65.3 58.2 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 39.6 43.4 44.2 106.3 61.0 54.3 14.1 34.9 50.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 45.4 59.7 47.4 113.4 66.3 58.8 20.0 35.3 58.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 67.6 84.6 52.4 114.8 67.8 61.6 30.8 59.7 81.9 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 65.1 71.1 51.9 117.3 73.8 63.1 30.5 40.7 55.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 34 66 100 61.3 68.5 63.5 129.5 75.8 69.8 25.3 44.9 56.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 82 18 100 33.3 43.9 43.9 104.6 60.6 53.7 17.0 26.7 47.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 79.1 90.0 58.1 123.9 77.7 66.8 44.2 53.8 76.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 60.9 65.8 51.4 117.4 73.0 63.0 27.6 37.8 51.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 73.6 88.2 57.6 121.4 77.3 65.6 33.2 43.7 60.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 27 73 100 59.1 65.1 51.2 124.7 77.9 67.1 28.6 42.7 59.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 29 71 100 52.5 57.2 50.6 128.2 77.6 68.2 27.0 41.1 51.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 61.4 76.0 56.7 129.3 78.9 69.6 26.4 39.0 59.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 70.6 84.1 56.8 110.6 65.6 57.1 39.6 59.9 85.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 31 69 100 57.9 64.3 55.7 124.2 70.5 64.1 17.4 35.9 61.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 30 70 100 55.1 63.8 53.5 127.2 77.9 68.9 22.9 34.8 49.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 32.4 31.1 42.2 101.4 57.3 50.9 16.8 26.9 39.9 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 55.1 70.2 61.7 115.7 73.1 62.5 35.8 48.3 63.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 47.7 52.7 44.8 107.1 60.8 54.8 18.1 39.2 62.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 55.7 78.5 74.6 113.3 71.1 61.9 38.2 48.5 65.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 44.8 59.1 49.2 117.3 70.2 61.7 26.8 37.8 55.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 38.6 43.0 43.4 100.7 56.7 50.9 22.2 32.3 49.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 49.5 59.5 46.8 107.9 61.3 55.4 25.7 40.8 67.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 56.2 80.5 55.5 114.9 69.2 60.2 27.5 45.2 60.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 79 21 100 42.0 50.1 52.0 110.0 61.2 57.3 19.9 33.9 53.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 64.0 75.7 53.8 129.6 77.9 68.9 30.1 42.2 52.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 79 21 100 39.6 42.2 49.7 107.1 61.1 55.5 16.0 30.8 52.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 55.9 61.0 54.3 123.7 72.3 65.8 19.7 38.5 54.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 73.5 86.8 65.1 110.5 69.8 59.8 49.0 65.1 76.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 82 18 100 37.9 46.6 45.4 108.2 61.8 55.8 17.6 31.3 58.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------