***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.9 102.9 67.1 54.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 6.6 10.0 10.4 101.5 66.3 53.0 0.5 4.9 9.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 10.7 14.7 10.2 106.7 68.6 54.9 2.8 6.2 13.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 11.4 14.8 10.4 101.2 62.6 51.0 2.1 8.0 15.5 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 10.0 11.2 10.5 108.0 65.0 54.0 3.2 7.6 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.1 8.9 10.6 96.2 62.6 50.6 1.2 4.3 10.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 5.4 6.1 10.0 95.8 62.2 51.8 1.8 4.1 8.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 52 48 0 100 5.3 15.1 12.0 108.2 62.8 53.8 4.4 9.9 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 3.8 9.8 10.7 112.9 66.4 54.6 3.4 7.3 9.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 52 48 0 100 4.6 12.5 12.0 113.4 66.1 55.1 3.6 8.3 12.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 54 46 0 100 3.0 11.0 10.0 106.8 65.2 53.2 2.3 5.9 11.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 51 49 0 100 3.0 7.2 9.8 105.1 62.5 51.9 2.1 6.1 7.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 10.4 10.3 10.0 98.7 64.1 50.4 2.7 6.4 10.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 5.6 22.8 13.9 114.7 72.4 56.0 5.7 10.9 20.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 6.7 12.9 10.6 102.2 65.4 51.3 1.5 4.7 13.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 2.1 9.9 9.6 100.2 63.9 50.9 3.0 4.3 10.9 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 1.1 9.7 10.5 103.4 64.1 52.5 1.1 2.3 10.0 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 3.6 14.7 13.5 111.3 68.7 55.1 3.3 6.8 12.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 9.0 16.2 10.6 104.9 66.8 53.4 2.0 5.8 15.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 10.7 11.1 16.2 99.7 61.1 52.5 4.1 7.9 12.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 8.8 15.6 10.2 112.1 69.2 55.6 2.7 5.9 15.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 7.7 12.2 11.4 112.3 65.5 53.9 0.8 5.1 12.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 12.3 21.2 11.4 110.9 68.8 54.6 3.5 9.1 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 3.8 16.7 12.4 112.8 70.5 55.8 5.0 8.0 15.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 6.9 7.8 10.7 100.9 64.6 53.2 1.4 3.5 8.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 4.1 11.9 10.1 102.5 64.3 51.2 2.7 8.6 12.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 7.2 10.9 10.6 98.7 65.6 53.4 1.0 2.9 11.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 9.0 9.7 10.1 101.5 64.6 50.6 1.7 7.3 10.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 75 25 100 13.0 18.6 14.4 104.9 66.2 53.3 5.8 8.6 18.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 7.2 11.8 10.2 101.2 67.9 53.5 1.2 5.3 10.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------