***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 53 47 0 100 9999.0 0.0 9.8 91.1 58.0 44.5 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 3.4 10.2 10.2 101.6 63.8 48.0 0.5 7.2 10.4 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 1.9 7.2 10.2 93.1 58.1 45.1 1.0 3.7 11.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 2.5 6.8 9.9 78.7 58.4 42.5 2.5 5.1 9.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 3.0 12.1 10.5 86.5 59.2 45.3 1.1 6.8 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.0 4.2 10.8 79.2 51.1 42.1 1.1 4.2 9.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 2.3 9.9 10.2 103.0 62.5 47.9 0.8 5.7 10.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 60 40 0 100 4.3 14.3 11.3 87.0 59.7 44.9 2.7 10.2 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 10.5 8.8 10.9 89.1 58.4 44.5 1.6 7.4 11.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 6.0 14.8 11.7 89.5 58.4 44.9 2.3 12.3 16.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 57 43 0 100 3.7 11.4 9.3 83.9 57.2 43.5 3.3 8.6 13.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 62 38 0 100 3.1 10.0 9.0 83.2 59.1 43.5 0.6 8.1 11.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 3.2 9.1 9.6 81.4 55.1 42.9 0.7 7.2 12.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 13.1 13.0 13.6 98.1 59.9 47.6 5.6 9.0 19.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 0.9 2.4 9.2 72.7 55.9 42.7 0.7 2.0 6.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 2.6 7.9 9.3 81.9 56.4 43.4 0.9 6.0 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 1.6 7.7 10.3 105.9 64.2 50.0 0.5 3.4 8.6 30 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 2.3 10.8 13.7 90.1 58.5 45.0 2.4 4.0 17.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.3 10.2 10.2 97.8 61.8 47.7 0.7 8.9 12.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 57 43 0 100 3.7 15.2 17.0 89.4 61.3 47.1 1.0 8.4 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 5.9 6.5 10.3 90.2 59.7 44.8 1.3 2.5 11.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 8.5 9.4 10.6 103.1 63.0 51.6 0.3 5.9 11.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 11.1 11.8 10.8 94.3 58.6 47.4 1.3 9.7 13.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 10.9 10.7 12.6 93.4 57.9 45.8 2.2 6.9 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 5.9 4.3 11.1 87.5 57.9 44.4 0.8 2.7 13.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 65 35 0 100 1.7 6.6 9.0 81.0 53.7 42.2 1.8 4.9 11.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 8.0 5.5 10.6 89.1 57.3 44.7 2.9 5.2 10.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 1.8 5.0 9.2 74.9 56.3 42.6 2.2 3.8 7.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 5.1 18.1 15.2 89.6 58.9 46.3 3.7 9.5 22.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 3.0 8.7 10.0 97.8 61.8 47.0 1.2 6.9 11.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------