***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 67 33 0 100 9999.0 0.0 6.3 69.0 51.3 35.7 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 2.1 7.4 6.8 77.2 51.5 39.8 1.4 5.8 12.6 30 Becej 27400G00 66 34 0 100 2.8 8.4 6.3 71.7 51.4 38.5 0.6 8.2 15.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 72 28 0 100 3.9 8.5 4.6 45.1 48.1 31.7 3.7 10.4 16.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 2.0 4.6 5.9 60.7 52.4 37.2 1.5 4.3 18.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 3.4 7.9 6.7 52.4 46.8 32.9 3.1 8.9 21.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 63 37 0 100 2.3 8.1 7.0 77.2 51.8 40.0 0.6 6.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 7.6 14.5 7.7 74.5 55.0 38.8 7.9 13.4 22.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 3.1 6.9 6.0 63.8 50.1 36.5 1.5 6.8 17.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 4.3 9.3 7.0 68.5 50.2 38.1 1.6 9.2 18.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 2.0 7.6 5.7 63.1 54.5 37.6 0.9 4.6 15.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 3.5 10.9 5.9 66.1 55.6 36.9 1.6 9.3 14.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 2.6 5.8 6.5 59.7 49.1 36.5 3.8 5.8 20.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 2.9 6.2 8.0 72.7 49.1 40.4 1.2 7.0 22.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 1.1 3.1 4.7 46.0 49.3 32.5 1.3 3.3 9.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 62 38 0 100 2.3 8.7 5.8 58.9 52.5 36.5 0.9 6.0 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 1.4 5.0 7.4 84.1 56.4 42.2 0.4 3.6 11.2 30 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 5.0 7.6 8.5 72.2 45.1 38.9 2.1 11.3 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 63 37 0 100 1.7 5.2 6.6 74.7 51.7 39.1 0.9 4.7 12.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 58 42 0 100 5.7 13.3 12.4 85.2 52.7 41.7 4.1 12.0 19.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 67 33 0 100 3.0 9.0 5.8 64.9 50.8 36.2 4.0 8.9 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 2.7 8.5 6.9 76.2 53.7 40.2 0.1 6.6 15.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 1.7 3.9 6.4 71.4 48.7 39.5 0.5 4.1 12.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 59 41 0 100 1.7 3.6 7.5 71.6 46.2 40.2 0.9 3.9 18.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 3.0 10.7 6.8 66.6 53.0 36.3 2.0 8.1 14.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.7 11.2 6.2 58.0 54.3 37.1 5.6 10.4 21.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 1.2 4.2 6.8 66.0 51.3 35.3 0.6 3.8 11.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 1.0 2.7 4.5 44.6 49.8 31.4 0.8 2.8 12.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 60 40 0 100 7.3 15.2 9.8 75.1 48.2 39.8 4.1 17.5 25.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 64 36 0 100 2.0 5.7 6.5 72.8 50.2 39.0 0.8 5.5 11.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------