***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-06.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 28 72 100 9999.0 0.0 21.4 170.5 77.9 71.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 40 60 100 9.3 11.9 16.9 134.4 70.5 63.9 0.5 1.9 10.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 13.6 17.0 20.6 166.0 78.0 70.4 2.7 5.6 10.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 30.5 44.2 27.6 218.0 90.1 81.7 6.4 14.6 22.2 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 18 82 100 20.8 25.8 25.0 197.0 86.4 79.6 4.1 11.9 17.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 3 97 100 27.9 44.0 35.4 306.5 96.8 92.9 1.3 7.2 11.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 40 60 100 13.1 15.0 16.7 132.9 72.3 62.5 0.6 4.3 12.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 12 88 100 24.3 31.8 27.2 214.5 87.8 82.7 3.9 14.1 20.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 24 76 100 15.0 21.0 23.8 188.3 84.5 77.1 3.9 8.4 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 17 83 100 18.4 23.0 26.7 198.8 85.1 80.0 6.6 11.4 17.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 9 91 100 18.5 27.1 26.2 226.7 88.3 84.3 2.4 10.3 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 8 92 100 20.8 33.9 25.9 248.1 91.5 85.5 1.3 7.1 14.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 4 96 100 24.2 32.8 30.6 276.6 94.6 90.3 2.3 5.2 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 20.4 25.5 21.3 148.3 74.7 68.5 5.6 11.1 17.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 9 91 100 20.7 38.9 31.2 268.5 94.5 85.7 1.4 4.7 15.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 4 96 100 21.6 31.7 28.7 256.7 93.1 88.7 0.6 3.0 16.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 5.8 10.5 14.0 108.4 65.0 56.9 0.3 3.4 10.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 24 76 100 18.2 22.5 26.0 182.7 81.4 76.9 4.4 9.8 11.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 43 57 100 11.2 14.5 17.5 139.5 70.9 64.8 1.8 4.8 11.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 25 75 100 18.2 22.6 29.0 180.2 82.1 77.9 5.0 13.1 15.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 22 78 100 18.4 24.2 22.9 183.5 82.0 75.1 2.7 8.9 12.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 84 16 100 5.8 8.4 14.4 106.7 61.6 56.6 0.7 4.4 9.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 43 57 100 15.5 19.0 18.2 143.8 73.5 65.3 1.8 7.5 13.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 19.4 22.4 23.1 172.1 78.4 73.2 4.6 12.6 16.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 28 72 100 20.0 25.9 23.4 170.4 77.6 72.4 2.4 5.0 11.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 7 93 100 26.4 46.1 28.6 286.1 96.0 88.6 1.1 2.9 10.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 12.3 15.2 21.8 160.5 75.1 69.2 1.0 5.1 10.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 9 91 100 22.2 50.9 30.5 263.3 94.8 87.0 3.6 10.6 19.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 25.5 31.4 25.7 168.7 79.8 74.9 5.5 11.5 25.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 37 63 100 11.3 13.8 18.6 147.6 75.6 66.7 0.9 6.1 11.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------