***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.09.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 69 31 0 100 9999.0 0.0 16.7 -1.0 29.0 35.1 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 68 32 0 100 17.4 17.9 16.6 -0.9 29.9 36.8 18.0 18.6 19.1 30 Becej 27400G00 63 37 0 100 17.6 18.3 16.9 -0.9 30.9 37.5 18.4 19.0 19.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 68 32 0 100 10.8 11.0 14.6 -1.4 24.6 29.9 11.1 11.6 12.4 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 60 40 0 100 17.7 18.1 15.5 -1.0 29.4 35.8 18.4 18.8 19.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 17.4 17.5 14.4 -0.8 35.3 39.7 17.3 18.2 18.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 65 35 0 100 17.3 17.6 16.5 -0.9 30.1 36.8 17.7 18.3 19.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 8.6 9.0 14.9 -0.5 38.7 43.4 8.8 9.4 10.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 62 38 0 100 17.8 18.5 16.2 -0.8 32.2 38.9 18.5 18.9 19.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 17.6 18.1 15.4 -0.6 37.2 41.9 17.7 18.4 19.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 17.9 18.4 15.6 -0.8 35.1 38.9 18.3 19.1 19.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 17.6 18.2 15.6 -0.6 37.6 42.3 17.7 18.5 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 18.2 18.9 15.4 -0.6 38.1 42.4 18.5 19.3 19.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 18.3 19.2 16.4 -0.5 41.3 43.5 18.7 19.5 20.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 16.9 17.0 14.9 -1.6 22.5 28.0 17.5 18.1 18.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 18.6 19.0 15.4 -0.8 34.2 38.9 19.0 19.6 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 69 31 0 100 16.9 17.5 16.3 -0.8 30.5 37.5 17.6 18.1 18.6 30 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 17.1 17.8 15.2 -0.4 41.9 44.9 17.1 18.0 18.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 67 33 0 100 17.4 18.0 16.8 -0.8 30.8 37.8 18.1 18.5 19.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 14.2 15.0 13.4 -0.2 42.6 46.9 14.1 15.2 16.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 63 37 0 100 17.7 17.9 16.5 -1.0 28.8 36.2 18.2 18.7 19.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 74 26 0 100 17.4 18.2 16.5 -0.8 31.8 37.6 18.2 18.7 19.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 64 36 0 100 17.8 18.5 17.0 -0.7 34.2 40.2 18.4 19.1 19.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 18.2 18.6 16.3 -0.5 39.4 43.1 18.4 19.2 19.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 70 30 0 100 17.0 17.5 15.2 -1.2 28.0 33.1 17.7 18.1 19.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 19.2 18.6 15.2 -0.5 40.7 43.4 17.9 18.9 19.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 68 32 0 100 17.4 17.9 16.0 -1.0 30.0 35.1 18.0 18.7 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 67 33 0 100 17.3 17.4 14.9 -1.5 24.3 29.8 17.6 18.1 19.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 13.3 14.4 14.5 -0.2 43.6 46.8 13.2 14.5 15.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 67 33 0 100 17.4 17.8 16.7 -0.9 29.7 36.5 17.8 18.6 19.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------