***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.10.2013.-27.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 9999.0 0.0 15.1 0.0 52.4 51.0 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 16.1 15.4 15.0 0.0 51.9 50.5 14.0 15.3 17.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.4 15.3 0.1 52.7 51.2 15.0 16.2 17.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 7.2 8.8 13.3 -0.2 49.8 49.3 6.5 8.8 10.7 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 17.0 16.5 13.9 -0.1 52.5 50.7 14.6 16.2 17.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 13.8 15.8 12.9 0.1 51.6 52.1 13.8 15.8 17.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.8 14.9 0.1 52.2 51.2 13.6 15.3 17.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 8.3 8.2 13.2 0.2 56.4 53.0 6.1 7.6 9.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 17.5 17.1 14.5 0.1 54.3 51.8 14.7 16.7 18.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 17.0 16.6 13.8 0.2 55.3 52.7 13.9 16.2 17.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.1 13.9 0.1 56.2 52.1 14.4 16.8 18.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 17.4 17.4 13.9 0.2 57.5 53.1 14.0 16.8 17.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 17.7 17.6 13.6 0.1 54.6 53.0 14.6 16.9 18.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 17.5 17.0 14.7 0.3 54.2 53.2 14.8 16.7 18.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 52 48 0 100 13.2 14.7 13.5 -0.1 50.5 49.2 13.5 14.7 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 76 24 100 18.3 17.8 13.7 0.1 54.9 52.0 15.1 17.6 19.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 15.9 15.4 14.6 0.0 52.5 50.5 13.1 15.1 16.7 30 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 15.8 15.4 13.4 0.2 55.8 53.7 12.9 15.1 16.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 16.3 15.9 15.2 0.0 52.7 50.8 14.2 15.5 17.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.7 13.5 11.6 0.2 55.0 53.6 11.0 13.0 14.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 17.2 16.8 14.9 0.0 53.2 51.0 14.4 16.4 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 16.5 15.6 14.7 0.0 51.8 50.2 14.2 15.5 17.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 16.7 16.5 15.3 0.1 52.8 51.8 14.4 15.9 18.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 17.9 17.5 14.6 0.2 54.3 53.2 14.4 17.2 18.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 15.9 15.1 13.7 -0.1 51.5 50.2 13.9 15.0 17.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 14.9 17.0 13.4 0.1 53.8 52.4 14.5 16.7 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 16.3 15.8 14.5 0.0 52.7 51.0 14.4 15.5 17.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 13.1 14.6 13.6 -0.2 50.6 49.4 13.3 14.6 16.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 13.1 12.8 12.7 0.3 55.8 54.2 10.3 12.5 13.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 16.1 15.3 15.1 0.0 51.8 50.6 13.8 15.1 17.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------