***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.10.2013.-20.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 9999.0 0.0 17.5 0.8 59.5 55.9 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 15.2 19.2 17.3 0.8 59.9 56.4 16.3 17.8 19.4 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 15.3 19.4 17.8 1.0 60.6 57.3 17.3 18.6 19.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 8.4 11.2 15.6 0.5 54.3 53.2 9.2 10.6 12.3 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 15.8 19.0 16.3 0.8 58.2 55.7 16.4 18.4 19.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 19.4 17.6 15.3 1.0 56.2 57.5 15.4 17.2 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 14.8 18.6 17.2 0.8 60.4 56.3 15.9 17.5 18.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 31 69 100 10.8 10.2 15.6 1.1 63.4 58.1 7.4 8.3 11.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 15.5 19.6 17.0 1.0 61.5 57.2 16.8 18.6 20.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 32 68 100 19.6 19.1 16.2 1.2 63.9 57.9 16.3 18.1 19.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 15.4 19.3 16.4 1.0 60.3 57.4 16.7 18.2 19.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 32 68 100 19.6 18.7 16.4 1.1 62.7 58.3 15.8 18.1 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 20.0 19.0 16.1 1.1 60.6 58.0 16.4 18.4 19.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 16.0 19.9 17.1 1.2 67.2 58.4 17.5 19.7 19.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 15.1 16.7 15.6 0.3 50.1 52.9 15.1 16.7 17.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 34 66 100 20.5 19.5 16.2 1.0 58.1 57.1 17.2 18.7 20.2 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 15.0 17.8 17.0 0.8 60.5 57.2 15.3 17.5 18.2 30 Palic 37000G16 59 41 0 100 14.5 19.0 15.9 1.3 65.3 58.4 15.8 17.9 19.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 15.2 19.1 17.6 0.9 60.7 56.9 16.1 18.1 19.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 56 44 0 100 11.7 15.4 14.0 1.2 63.0 58.2 13.0 14.5 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 55 45 0 100 15.4 19.3 17.4 0.9 60.4 56.3 16.8 18.3 19.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 15.7 18.5 17.2 0.9 60.1 57.3 16.4 18.4 19.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 15.6 19.3 17.8 1.1 64.7 57.5 16.4 18.5 19.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 15.3 20.0 17.1 1.3 64.8 58.5 17.2 18.9 20.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 15.0 18.3 16.1 0.6 58.4 54.8 15.7 17.2 18.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 34 66 100 19.3 18.3 16.0 1.1 61.7 59.0 16.4 17.2 18.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 15.0 18.8 16.8 0.7 59.2 55.5 16.7 17.9 19.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 52 48 0 100 15.3 16.8 15.8 0.4 51.4 53.4 15.2 16.8 19.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 58 42 0 100 10.6 15.1 15.1 1.3 64.0 58.5 12.5 14.2 15.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 56 44 0 100 14.9 19.1 17.5 0.8 60.1 56.4 16.0 17.6 19.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------