***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.09.2013. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.10.2013.-13.10.2013. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 82 18 100 9999.0 0.0 19.0 0.6 55.8 55.8 9999.0 9999.0 9999.0 26 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 21.0 21.6 18.9 0.6 59.8 56.8 19.0 20.7 21.7 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 20.6 21.3 19.3 0.8 59.2 58.1 19.1 20.1 21.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 13.7 13.8 17.3 0.4 55.9 54.0 10.9 13.0 15.1 30 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 20.6 20.7 18.0 0.7 57.8 56.7 19.1 20.2 21.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 20.7 20.7 16.8 0.9 58.9 58.2 18.2 20.4 21.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 20.6 20.9 18.7 0.5 59.1 56.1 19.0 20.1 21.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 11.4 11.7 17.3 1.1 59.7 59.4 9.1 11.0 12.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 20.8 20.9 18.6 1.0 58.3 58.5 19.1 20.4 21.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 21.1 21.0 17.9 1.1 59.8 59.6 19.0 20.8 21.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 20.9 21.3 18.0 0.9 59.5 58.3 19.7 20.5 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 82 18 100 21.2 21.0 18.0 1.0 58.8 58.6 18.6 21.0 21.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 21.1 21.5 17.5 0.9 57.5 57.7 19.8 20.7 22.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 36 64 100 22.3 22.1 18.8 1.3 64.3 61.8 19.5 21.1 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 20.2 20.1 17.3 0.2 54.5 52.9 17.7 19.7 21.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 82 18 100 21.7 22.1 17.7 0.8 58.0 57.5 20.5 21.4 22.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 20.0 21.0 18.6 0.6 61.0 57.6 18.8 19.5 21.2 30 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 20.2 20.3 17.6 1.3 60.8 61.2 18.2 20.0 20.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 21.1 21.1 19.2 0.8 61.0 58.0 18.6 20.7 21.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 83 17 100 16.9 17.4 15.7 1.2 59.6 60.5 15.2 16.6 18.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 20.5 20.7 19.0 0.8 58.5 57.4 18.9 20.1 21.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 80 20 100 20.9 21.6 18.8 0.7 62.7 58.5 19.0 20.6 21.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 38 62 100 21.8 21.6 19.4 1.0 62.6 59.8 18.8 20.6 22.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 20.9 21.7 18.7 1.3 61.5 61.3 19.3 20.3 22.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 19.9 19.6 17.6 0.5 55.4 55.4 18.8 19.5 20.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 84 16 100 21.6 21.6 17.4 0.8 57.0 57.4 19.1 21.4 21.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 82 18 100 20.4 20.3 18.3 0.5 55.3 55.6 18.8 20.0 21.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 20.5 21.1 17.6 0.3 55.5 53.9 17.4 20.0 21.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 82 18 100 16.2 16.8 16.8 1.3 60.9 61.4 14.3 15.8 17.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 20.7 21.3 19.0 0.6 58.8 56.5 18.5 20.4 21.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------